Water Supply Change Outlook for Geum River Basin Considering RCP Climate Change Scenario

Abstract

In this study, water supply for Geum River Basin was calculated by regulating the future water supply of Dam with the future expected discharges. HadGEM2-AO, which is the climate change prediction model that KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) recently introduced was used for this study. The data of weather stations within the Geum River basin was extracted with the new Greenhouse Gas RCP scenario. The runoff of Geum river basin was simulated using the ArcSWAT for the 1988～2010 period. After validating the model, the similarity of results between simulation and observation at the Yongdam Dam and Daecheong Dam was 92.25% and 95.40%, respectively, which shows a good agreement with observed data. As the result of analysis for the discharges, the discharges would increase 47.76% under the RCP4.5 scenario and 36.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario. Water balance analysis was conducted by the KModSim for predicting the water supply under the runoff variation. We analyzed the volume of water intake with national standard of water supply 95%

Water Supply-and-Demand Analysis Considering the Actual Water-Use System in the East Basin of Han River

“…최근 2017년 1~12월의 강수량은 7월을 제외한 모든 달에 1966~ 2016년의 평균값 이하가 발생하였고, 특히 1, 3, 5, 6, 11월은 평균대비 50%이하의 강수가 발생하였다 (Han River Flood Control Office, 2018). 이와 같은 변화는 유출 변화를 야기시 키며, 물순환(water circulation)의 변동을 대응하기 위한 신 뢰성 있는 평가와 적절한 계획이 필요하다 (No et al, 2013…”

Improving Reservoir Operation Criteria to Stabilize Water Supplies in a Multipurpose Dam: Focused on Nakdong River Basin in Korea

“…Many studies have assessed the performances of the water resource systems of multipurpose dams, and most have applied decision-making methods to establish water supply plans [4] or assessed the water supply capacities and reliability of multipurpose dams using operation methods [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] or assessment indices [13][14][15][16] for multipurpose dams. No et al [17], Choi [18], and Nam et al [19] assessed the water supply capacity of a prospective multipurpose dam using future climate change scenarios. However, most of these studies assessed the water supply capacity of a single dam or the effects of optimal operation criteria capable of maximizing benefits, such as power generation [7].…”

Characteristics of Daily Precipitation Data Based on the Detailed Climate Change Ensemble Scenario Depending on the Regional Climate Models and the Calibration

“…기후변화를 고려한 대표적인 전망자료인 남한 상세 기후변 화 시나리오 일 강수자료(이하, RCP 일 강수자료)는 전 지구 기후모형을 기반으로 다양한 지역기후모형(Regional Climate Mldels, RCMs)의 상세화 과정을 통해 1.0 km 공간해상도 자 료로 생산되고 있다. 기상청 국립기상연구소에서는 5개의 지 역기후모형을 이용하여 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오 자료를 공통 적으로 제공하고 있으며, 이에 발맞춰 다양한 연구사례가 발 표되고 있다 (Ahn et al, 2010;Oh et al, 2011;Choi et al, 2011;Hong et al, 2013;No et al, 2013;Son et al, 2013;Rim and Kim, 2014;Nkomozepi and Chung, 2014;Ahn et al, 2014;Park et al, 2014. …”