Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation

Yiou, Pascal; Goubanova, Katerina; Li, Laurent; Nogaj, M.

doi:10.5194/npg-15-365-2008

Cited by 69 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Nevertheless, significant temperature anomalies are detected such as the cold winter 2010, the cold spring 2013, the warm fall 2006, the warm winter 2007 or the hot summer 2003. Summer mean values are split into weather regimes following the classification of Yiou et al (2008) from the A2C2 (Atmospheric flow Analogues for Climate Change) project. In summer at SIRTA, the daily temperature is maximal when the weather regime is NAO+ (North Atlantic Oscillation+), it is weaker when the weather regime is blocking or NAO− and it is minimal when the weather regime is "Atlantic Ridge", as expected based on literature (numbers in the box in Fig.…”

Section: From the Daily Timescale To The Decadal Timescalementioning

confidence: 99%

ReOBS: a new approach to synthesize long-term multi-variable dataset and application to the SIRTA supersite

Chiriaco

Dupont

Badosa

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

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Abstract.A scientific approach is presented to aggregate and harmonize a set of 60 geophysical variables at hourly timescale over a decade, and to allow multiannual and multi-variable studies combining atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics, radiation, clouds and aerosols from ground-based observations. Many datasets from ground-based observations are currently in use worldwide. They are very valuable because they contain complete and precise information due to their spatio-temporal co-localization over more than a decade. These datasets, in particular the synergy between different type of observations, are under-used because of their complexity and diversity due to calibration, quality control, treatment, format, temporal averaging, metadata, etc. Two main results are presented in this article: (1) a set of methods available for the community to robustly and reliably process ground-based data at an hourly timescale over a decade is described and (2) a single netCDF file is provided based on the SIRTA supersite observations. This file contains approximately 60 geophysical variables (atmospheric and in ground) hourly averaged over a decade for the longest variables. The netCDF file is available and easy to use for the community. In this article, observations are "re-analyzed". The prefix "re" refers to six main steps: calibration, quality control, treatment, hourly averaging, homogenization of the formats and associated metadata, as well as expertise on more than a decade of observations. In contrast, previous studies (i) took only some of these six steps into account for each variable, (ii) did not aggregate all variables together in a single file and (iii) did not offer an hourly resolution for about 60 variables over a decade (for the longest variables). The approach described in this article can be applied to different supersites and to additional variables. The main implication of this work is that complex atmospheric observations are made readily available for scientists who are non-experts in measurements. The dataset from SIRTA observations can be downloaded at http://sirta.ipsl.fr/reobs.html (last access: April 2017) (Downloads tab, no password required) under https://doi

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Section: From the Daily Timescale To The Decadal Timescalementioning

confidence: 99%

ReOBS: a new approach to synthesize long-term multi-variable dataset and application to the SIRTA supersite

Chiriaco

Dupont

Badosa

et al. 2018

Earth Syst. Sci. Data

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For example, Della-Marta et al (2007) and Carril et al (2008) related the influence of the atmosphere dynamics and sea surface temperature (SST) to heat waves using methods based on empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) or canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Other studies use circulation types (CTs; Yiou and Nogaj, 2004;Yiou et al, 2008;Van den Besselaar et al, 2010;Fernández-Montes et al, 2013). These are guided by the results obtained by Corti et al (1999), who pointed out that recent climate changes can be interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation regimes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These are guided by the results obtained by Corti et al (1999), who pointed out that recent climate changes can be interpreted in terms of changes in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation regimes. Some patterns related to anticyclonic and blocking situations favour the development of warm extreme events over Europe (Yiou et al, 2008;Carril et al, 2008;Pfahl, 2014). Therefore, trends in the appearance of these situations could be the cause of the observed trends.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attributing trends in extremely hot days to changes in atmospheric dynamics

García‐Valero

Montávez

Gómez-Navarro

et al. 2015

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. This paper presents a method for attributing regional trends in the frequency of extremely hot days (EHDs) to changes in the frequency of the atmospheric patterns that characterize such extraordinary events. The study is applied to mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands for the extended summers of the period 1958-2008, where significant and positive trends in maximum temperature (T x ) have been reported during the second half of the past century.First, the study area was split into eight regions attending to their different temporal variability of the daily T x series obtained from the Spain02 gridded data set using a clustering procedure. Second, the large-scale atmospheric situations causing EHDs are defined by circulation types (CTs). The obtainment of the CTs differs from the majority of CT classifications proposed in the literature. It is based on regional series and on a previous characterization of the main atmospheric situations obtained using only some days classified as extremes in the different regions. Three different atmospheric fields (SLP, T850, and Z500) from ECMWF reanalysis and analysis data and combinations of them (SLP-T850, SLP-Z500, and T850-Z500) are used to produce six different CT classifications. Subsequently, links between EHD occurrence in the different regions and CT for all days have been established. Finally, a simple model to relate the trends in EHDs for each region to the changes in the CT frequency appearance has been formulated.Most regions present positive and significant trends in the occurrence of EHDs. The CT classifications using two variables perform better. In particular, SLP-T850 is the best for characterizing the atmospheric situations leading to EHD occurrences for most of the regions. Only a small number of CTs have significant trends in their frequency and are associated with high efficiency causing EHD occurrences in most regions simultaneously, especially in the northern and central regions. Attribution results show that changes in circulation can only explain some part of the regional EHD trends. The percentage of the trend attributable to changes in atmospheric dynamics varies from 15 to 50 %, depends on the region and is sensitive to the selected large-scale variables.

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“…Data modeling and inference can be found in Smith (2003), Naveau et al (2005), Falk and Michel (2006), Kunkel et al (2007), Benisten et al (2007), Cooley et al (2007), Bel et al (2007), Elek and Márkus (2007), Yiou et al (2008), Zhang (2008a), Smith and Stephenson (2009), Naveau et al (2011), and Gilleland et al (2013), among others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Random Threshold Driven Tail Dependence Measures with Application to Precipitation Data Analysis

Zhang¹,

Zhang²,

Cui³

2017

STAT SINICA

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This paper first studies the theoretical properties of the tail quotient correlation coefficient (TQCC) which was proposed to measure tail dependence between two random variables. By introducing random thresholds in TQCC, an approximation theory between conditional tail probabilities is established. The new random threshold-driven TQCC can be used to test the null hypothesis of tail independence under which TQCC test statistics are shown to follow a Chi-squared distribution under two general scenarios. The TQCC is shown to be consistent under the alternative hypothesis of tail dependence with a general approximation of max-stable distribution. Second, we apply TQCC to investigate tail dependencies of a large scale problem of daily precipitation in the continental US. Our results, from the perspective of tail dependence, reveal nonstationarity, spatial clusters, and tail dependence from the precipitations across the continental US.

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Weather regime dependence of extreme value statistics for summer temperature and precipitation

Cited by 69 publications

References 53 publications

ReOBS: a new approach to synthesize long-term multi-variable dataset and application to the SIRTA supersite

ReOBS: a new approach to synthesize long-term multi-variable dataset and application to the SIRTA supersite

Attributing trends in extremely hot days to changes in atmospheric dynamics

Random Threshold Driven Tail Dependence Measures with Application to Precipitation Data Analysis

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