What Are the Consequences of Snap Elections on Citizens’ Voting Behavior?

Abstract

In some democracies, the ruling party can strategically call a "snap" (or "early") election before the end of its mandate in order to maximise its chances of re-election. Little is known on the consequences of calling such an election. In this article, we contribute to this literature by analyzing whether snap elections affect citizens' voting behavior. Does being angry at the decision of the incumbent government have an impact on citizens' decision to vote or not to vote and/or their vote choice calculus? To answer these questions, we make use of two different and independently conducted surveys in Canada during a snap election. We do not find evidence that calling an early election reduces citizens' likelihood to vote. However, when they do decide to vote, citizens that resent the decision to call an early election are substantially more likely to punish the incumbent government.

Do opportunistic snap elections affect political trust? Evidence from a natural experiment

“…The extant literature on the political consequences of snap elections is still rather limited. Most of the empirical analysis available, in addition to describing the constitutional variation in the application of these mechanisms (Schleiter & Morgan‐Jones, 2009), focuses on the effects of opportunistic action on aggregate (Schleiter & Tavits, 2016) and individual‐level (Blais et al., 2004) voting for the incumbent or on electoral participation (Daoust & Péloquin‐Skulski, 2021). Relying on national vote share enjoyed by incumbents, Schleiter and Tavits (2016) demonstrate that leveraging the advantageous access to knowledge of the political and economic situation afforded by being in power (Smith, 2003) allows incumbents to benefit from net electoral gains.…”

“…Beyond a focus on electoral choice, Daoust and Péloquin‐Skulski (2021) consider if early elections can influence turnout. Theorising that early elections can increase costs for citizens and have the potential to induce feelings of voter fatigue (Hibbing & Theiss‐Morse, 2002), the authors use individual‐level data from provincial elections in Canada to test their theory.…”

Snap elections increase political trust: a quasi-experiment from the UK

“…The extant literature on the political consequences of snap elections is still rather limited. Most of the empirical analysis available focuses on the effects of opportunistic action on aggregate (Schleiter and Tavits, 2016) and individual-level (Blais et al, 2004) voting for the incumbent or on electoral participation (Daoust and Péloquin-Skulski, 2021). Relying on national vote share enjoyed by incumbents, Schleiter and Tavits (2016) demonstrate that leveraging the advantageous access to knowledge of the political and economic situation afforded by being in power (Smith, 2003) allows incumbents to benefit from net electoral gains.…”

“…Beyond a focus on electoral choice, Daoust and Péloquin-Skulski (2021) consider if early elections can influence individual-level turnout. Theorising that early elections can increase costs for citizens and have the potential to induce feelings of voter fatigue, the authors use individual-level data from provincial elections in Canada to test their theory.…”

Government Preferences, Vote Choice and Strategic Voting in Canada

“…Seeking a majority government, Charest argued that “we can't face an economic storm with three hands on the rudder” ( CBC News , 2008). The need for a majority government was evident and pressing: parliamentary uncertainty was coupled with the economic downturn in the premier's direct appeal for a legislative majority, something that his Liberal Party ultimately received in 2008 (see Bélanger and Gélineau, 2011; Daoust and Péloquin-Skulski, 2021). Similarly, in the 2018 Ontario provincial election in Canada, when it became clear that the Progressive Conservative (PC) Party would win the most seats, the incumbent Liberal premier, Kathleen Wynne, urged voters to support her party in order to deny the PC Party a majority ( CBC News , 2018).…”