2008
DOI: 10.1787/231764364351
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What Drives the NAIRU? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries

Abstract: This paper analyses the determinants of structural unemployment rates in a two-stage approach. First, time-varying NAIRUs are estimated for a panel of OECD economies on the basis of Phillips curve equations using Kalman filter techniques. In a second stage, the estimated NAIRUs are regressed on selected policy and institutional variables. As predicted by theoretical wage-setting/price-setting models, the level of the tax wedge and the user cost of capital are found to be important drivers of structural unemplo… Show more

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Cited by 23 publications
(4 citation statements)
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“…The former OECD approach to estimating the Phillips curve and deriving the unemployment gap adopted a traditional backward-looking Phillips curve specification (Richardson et al (2000); Gianella et al, 2008;Guichard and Rusticelli, 2011), in which b(1) =1, so that inflation and inflation expectations follow unit root processes, and [4] simplifies to:…”
Section: The Former Backward-looking Phillips Curve Specificationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The former OECD approach to estimating the Phillips curve and deriving the unemployment gap adopted a traditional backward-looking Phillips curve specification (Richardson et al (2000); Gianella et al, 2008;Guichard and Rusticelli, 2011), in which b(1) =1, so that inflation and inflation expectations follow unit root processes, and [4] simplifies to:…”
Section: The Former Backward-looking Phillips Curve Specificationmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The standard state-space framework introduced in Gianella et al (2008) and adopted to regularly update the NAIRU estimates for all OECD member states (most recently in Guichard and Rusticelli, 2011) can be summarised as:…”
Section: The Current Oecd Approach To Estimating the Nairumentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Most representatives of economic science (Gianella, 2008;Jung, 2008;Paetta, 2008;Skidelsky, 2008;Stiglitz, 2009) only solidified their opinions about inability of current economic model to solve incurred economic problems, when reacting to global changes in the sphere of economic production and to the global financial crisis (Markovic, 2008;McCann, 1998;Melnikas, 2008;Pekarskiene, Susniene, 2011). They have reacted so not only when these changes occurred, but predominantly after some time passed.…”
Section: Changes In the Economic Development And Their Impact On Mana...mentioning
confidence: 99%