What Made Carolina Blue? In-Migration and the 2008 North Carolina Presidential Vote

McKee, Seth C.; Hood, M. V.

doi:10.1177/1532673x09359379

Cited by 27 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Carolina, and Florida partly explains their presidential battleground status and Obama's success there, despite narrowly losing North Carolina in 2012 (Hood and McKee 2010 ). Of course, the presentation in fi gure 2 can only go so far-perhaps providing more "grist" for speculative arguments than actual confi rmation.…”

Section: Southern Migration Patternsmentioning

confidence: 92%

The New Blue: Northern In-Migration in Southern Presidential Elections

McKee

Teigen

2016

APSC

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Section: Southern Migration Patternsmentioning

confidence: 92%

The New Blue: Northern In-Migration in Southern Presidential Elections

McKee

Teigen

2016

APSC

Self Cite

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“…Some research exists that explores the impact of migration on the partisan leaning and political orientation of individuals (Brown, 1988;MacDonald & Franko, 2008). Others have identified large migration streams as a force for partisan change within regions and states (McDonald, 2011;Cook, 2011;Hood & McKee, 2010;Robinson & Noriega, 2010;Bishop 2008;Dupre & Scala, 2002;Gimpel & Schuknecht, 2001). We have learned less, however, about the interplay between partisan affinity and residential relocation.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Migration as an opportunity to register changing partisan loyalty in the United States

Cho

Gimpel

Hui

2018

Population Space and Place

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We explore the connection between residential migration choices and political party identification by movers who change their political party registration. We find that an impressive number of migrants choose neighbourhoods that favor their new party of registration. The association between the party change of the migrant and the balance of local partisanship in their new neighborhood cannot be accounted for by a process of neighbourhood socialisation because the move is too recent for socialisation pressures to have operated. It is more likely that the migrant's political transition occurred well before the relocation and shaped the destination search. Relocation offered an opportunity to mark a previously transformed partisan preference on the voter rolls. In this sense, partisan identification is stable, but observing any large subset of migrants may make it appear unhinged, as this group collectively takes its opportunity to officially disclose their change in political party loyalty when they have a chance to relocate and must reregister.

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“…There is some evidence that the most recent northern migrants have been disproportionately Democratic, despite their high income levels, especially in states such as Virginia and North Carolina (MacManus 2012). The growing success of Democrats in northern Virginia and in the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina attests to this trend (Hood and McKee 2010). The Democratic appeal to these new southerners presumably is because they are well-educated professionals who are liberal on many issues; also, there may be a sizable number of blacks and other minorities in this group.…”

Section: Implications For the Futurementioning

confidence: 97%

“…It could be that the greater inclination of younger southerners to vote for Democrats is a result of there being a disproportionate number of young southerners who grew up in the North. Hood and McKee (2010) found that factor to be an important explanation for the support that Obama received in North Carolina in 2008. Unfortunately, while the 2012 ANES survey asked respondents where they grew up, that variable is not included in the most recent release (April, 2014).…”

Section: Sources Of Differences In Voting Patterns Across Generationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Newest Southerners: Generational Differences in Electoral Behavior in the Contemporary South

Prysby

2017

ARP

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Young voters contributed disproportionately to Barack Obama’s presidential victory in 2012. In fact, if the electorate had been limited to those over 30 years old, Mitt Romney might be in the White House today. Obama captured 60 percent of the vote of those under 30, compared to 49 percent of those over 30, according to the national exit polls (Schier and Box- Steffensmeier 2013, 86). A similar pattern characterized the 2008 presidential election: Obama won 66 percent of the vote among those aged 29 or less, but under one-half of voters older than 45 (Pomper 2010, 53). The tendency for younger voters to be disproportionately Democratic emerged in the 2004 presidential election. Prior to that, Democratic presidential candidates did not consistently do better among younger voters. In 2000, for example, Al Gore did as well among older voters as he did among younger voters, and in 1992, Bill Clinton did his best among older voters, as did Walter Mondale in 1984 and Michael Dukakis in 1988 (Pomper 2001, 138; Pomper 1989, 133).

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What Made Carolina Blue? In-Migration and the 2008 North Carolina Presidential Vote

Abstract: In this article, we examine the role that in-

Cited by 27 publications

References 17 publications

The New Blue: Northern In-Migration in Southern Presidential Elections

The New Blue: Northern In-Migration in Southern Presidential Elections

Migration as an opportunity to register changing partisan loyalty in the United States

The Newest Southerners: Generational Differences in Electoral Behavior in the Contemporary South

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