What Majority-minority Society? A Critical Analysis of the Census Bureau’s Projections of America’s Demographic Future

Abstract

On the basis of demographic projections by the U.S. Census Bureau, many Americans believe that their society will transition soon to a majority-minority one. The author analyzes the latest version of the projections and finds that the pivotal group is made up of individuals who come from mixed minority-white family backgrounds. It is projected to grow very rapidly in coming decades, and Census Bureau classification practices mean that most of its members are counted as minority. Without this classification, however, the emergence of a majority-minority society by 2060 is far from certain. Moreover, the evidence we possess about the characteristics, social affiliations, and identities of mixed individuals contradicts this Census Bureau practice, except for partly black individuals, who suffer from high levels of racism. Taking into account the ambiguous social locations of most mixed minority-white persons, the author suggests that, even should a majority-minority society appear, it will not look like we presently imagine it.

Contraction as a Response to Group Threat: Demographic Decline and Whites’ Classification of People Who Are Ambiguously White

“…Soon after, social scientists began to publish experimental studies documenting the consequences of this information for White people’s racial identification, outgroup attitudes, policy preferences, and other outcomes. Recently, some social scientists, most notably Richard Alba (2018), have drawn academic and public attention to the classification choices that underpin the Census Bureau’s projections (see also Tavernise 2018). The most famous projections depend on defining “Whites” as people who identify as non-Hispanic White alone .…”

“…The most famous projections depend on defining “Whites” as people who identify as non-Hispanic White alone . Alternative definitions of “Whites” yield a less dramatic picture, with White people remaining a majority well into the forecastable future (Alba 2018). Experimental frames that stress an enduring White majority largely mitigate threat among White people (Myers and Levy 2018a, 2018b).…”

“…The white establishment is now the minority.” And, in 2019, shootings in Christchurch, New Zealand, and El Paso, Texas, were linked to manifestos decrying the threat of “White replacement” (Bowles 2019; Eligon 2019). As Alba (2018:1) explains, “The scenario of white minority status is telescoped into the very near future, or even the present, by many whites.”…”

The Path of Least Resistance: Projections of Social Inequalities as a Result of Climate Change in the United States

“…These demographic population projections use cohort-change ratios (CCRs) and cohort-change differences (CCDs) (Hamilton and Perry 1962;Swanson, Schlottmann, and Schmidt 2010) in Leslie matrix projection models (Caswell 2001). We do note that the population projections do not account for potential racial identity changes over the life coursechanges that are likely to occur (Alba 2018)and a limitation in our analysis.…”

Immigration, Race, and Political Polarization

“…Although Alba (2018) showed the weak points in projections of a majorityminority U.S.A., many Whites express anxieties with codewords like "replacement" and with more benign expressions. A literature examining how Whites react to this potentiality has emerged, with backlash manifesting in more conservative positions in terms of racial attitudes and political ideology (Craig, Rucker, and Richeson 2018), though some ways of framing demographic change can potentially mitigate this backlash (Myers and Levy 2018).…”