What risks are common to or amplified in programmes: Evidence from UK public sector infrastructure schemes

Aritua, Bernard; Smith, N. J. T.; Bower, Denise

doi:10.1016/j.ijproman.2010.04.004

Cited by 36 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Project planning and design ranked first with 29 papers involved. Majority of these papers employed Delphi as a forecasting instrument to identify and evaluate certain risks for managing a specific type of projects, such as financial risks (Thomas et al 2006;Lyer and Sagheer 2010;Xu et al, 2010a;2010b;Ke et al 2010;2011), technical risks (Seo and Choi 2008), execution risks (Aritua et al 2011;Del Caño and de la Cruz 2002;De la Cruz et al 2006), as well as contractual and cost risks (Tummala and Burchett 1999;Adams 2006;. Aside from these studies on risk management, the Delphi method could be also used to investigate factors regarding engineering design and pre-project planning.…”

Section: Topic Coverage Of the Delphi Papersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Delphi Method in Construction Engineering and Management Research: A Quantitative Perspective

Ameyaw

Shan

et al. 2016

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

202

180

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Abstract. The Delphi method has been used as a main research method by a growing number of researchers in the Construction Engineering and Management (CEM) field in the past two decades. Although a number of studies are available on the use of Delphi, few researchers fully examine the potential of the Delphi method in the combined use of statistical techniques, which is an inevitable trend for future Delphi research. This paper aims to review the combined use of Delphi and other quantitative methods in the CEM field based on a structured literature review of 88 relevant papers. All of the 88 papers are systematically identified from ten well-known peer-reviewed CEM journals published in the period of 1990-2012. Topic coverage, application requirements, and statistical techniques in the 88 Delphi papers are reviewed. The mix use of the Delphi method with three advanced modelling methods, such as Fuzzy Sets, Analytical Hierarchy Process, and Analytical Network Process is also examined. These review results provide practical references for researchers having interests in applying Delphi method in CEM research.Keywords: Delphi method; Construction engineering and management research; Quantitative perspective; Review IntroductionThe Delphi method is a structured communication and consensus building approach amongst a group of experts on a complex problem (Chan et al. 2001). This method refers to an iterative process where consensus is often reached through rounds of feedbacks of experts' opinion and judgment on a particular subject (Hallowell and Gambatese 2010b). Although sometimes the reliability of the findings derived from a Delphi study may raise some controversy because of the inappropriate design and execution of the Delphi study, such as shortcomings of the survey instrument, poor choice of experts, weak bias control, unreliable analyses, and limited feedback during the study (Gupta and Clarke 1996;Keeney et al. 2001), the Delphi method remains a particularly useful alternative for the situation when objective data are unattainable, there is a lack of empirical evidence, or experimental research is unrealistic or unethical (Hallowell and Gambatese 2010b).As an established profession in the construction industry, CEM is a practice-driven field in nature. Many research questions in this field need to address the impacts of individuals, organizations and the society on construction management activities, particularly those on planning, forecasting and decision making activities (Fellows and Liu 2009). The key to resolve these problems should draw upon the collective knowledge and experience of selected experts in a given area. By contrast to other methods such as interviews, Delphi provides a more reliable and efficient alternative for solving these problems with high uncertainty (Chan et al. 2001). Therefore, a growing number of researchers have adopted Delphi method in CEM research since the early 1990s (Hallowell and Gambatese 2010b).Although many researchers regard Delphi as a qualitative method (Hasson et ...

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Section: Topic Coverage Of the Delphi Papersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of Delphi Method in Construction Engineering and Management Research: A Quantitative Perspective

Ameyaw

Shan

et al. 2016

Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

202

180

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…These include those by Zou et al [11], Zou et al [12], Akintoye and MacLeon [13], and Aritua et al [14]. Although Lam's article [15] mentions a "sectoral review of risks associated with major infrastructure projects", it does not refer to rail projects in any detail.…”

Section: Risks In Railway Construction Projectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Create a Ranked Check List of Risks in a Portfolio of Railway Construction Projects

Joubert

Pretorius

2017

SAJIE

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When introducing quantified risk assessments at a South African state-owned freight company, a skills gap was found during the identification and quantified risk analysis. To help with risk identification, a checklist of risks for railway construction projects was developed. The basis of this checklist was 38 individual railway construction project risk registers that were collated into a single risk register. After the risks had been cleaned up and classified, a Monte Carlo simulation using @Risk software was done that produced a ranked check list of risks. This list of risks is valuable because subject matter experts developed it, and can be used as a risk identification checklist by stakeholders in similar projects. The simulation results also showed that project scope is an influencing factor on the ranking of risks. OPSOMMINGTydens die bekendstelling van gekwantifiseerde risikowaardebepalings by 'n Suid-Afrikaanse vervoermaatskappy in staatsbesit, is daar 'n tekort aan vaardighede gevind tydens risikoidentifisering en 'n gekwantifiseerde risiko-analise. Om hierdie probleem te beredder, is 'n lys van spoorbaankonstruksie risikos ontwikkel. Die basis van hierdie lys was 38 individuele spoorbaankonstruksie projek risiko registers wat opgeneem is in 'n enkele risiko register. Na afloop hiervan is die risiko register skoongemaak, geklassifiseer, en 'n Monte Carlo-simulasie met behulp @Risk sagteware gedoen wat 'n ranglys van risikos geproduseer het. Hierdie ranglys wys dat die projek omvang 'n invloed het op die posisie van risikos in die ranglys. INTRODUCTIONThis article presents, as a case study, a way in which quantified risk registers are used to identify and rank the risks in a portfolio of railway construction projects. It starts by presenting the context in which the case study risk registers were collected. It continues with a concise literature survey on risks that can be found on railway construction projects. The model used during the simulation is then broadly discussed, referring in more detail to the use of MS Excel and to Monte Carlo simulation software such as @Risk. The article continues with the simulation results, where a list of ranked risks found on rail construction projects is presented. The simulation results provide some evidence that project scope is a factor determining the ranking of risk in similarly-scoped projects.

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“…No contexto de parcerias público privadas (PPP), estudos têm sido empreendidos para estudar a gestão de riscos neste tipo de projetos, mas particularmente em grandes obras de infraestrutura, tais como em Aritua et al 2011, Hanaoka & Palapus, 2012e Xu et al, 2012. Um tema que se sobressai é a necessidade de gerenciar riscos políticos (Deng et al, 2014, Ling et al, 2014, particularmente em países com estabilidade política ou com forte influência do estado na economia, além do grau de disseminação da corrupção afetando a saúde do ecossistema de negócio.…”

Section: Gestão De Riscos Em Projetos De Defesa E Em Pppunclassified

Gestão de Risco em Projetos: Um Estudo Ex-Post de Projetos de Material de Emprego Militar

Barbosa¹,

Carvalho²

2017

GeP

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EMPREGO MILITAR RESUMOO objetivo desse artigo é analisar a gestão de risco no contexto de sistemas militares, desenvolvidos por meio de parcerias público privadas. A abordagem de pesquisa adotada é de estudo exploratório desenvolvido em três projetos de modernização de veículos militares. Os resultados sugerem que há uma grande atenção para evitar riscos técnicos, o que desencoraja qualquer modificação do material. Outro aspecto destacado é o risco jurídico dado que vários projetos são parcerias público privadas, sendo que os aspectos legais têm forte influência para o formato do projeto, demandando a integração de especialistas de direito à equipe. A cadeia de suprimentos é crítica e o fluxo de material precisa ser ágil, mas é difícil determinar a priori a demanda real de peças de reposição. Dados históricos demonstram que as previsões ruins foram as principais causas do aumento de custos. Palavras-chave: Projetos; Gerenciamento de riscos; Projetos de manutenção RISK MANAGEMENT OF PROJECTS: AN EX-POST STUDY ON MILITARY SYSTEMS PROJECTS ABSTRACTThis article aims to analyze the risk management of projects and understand risk factors in the context of military systems. The research approach is an exploratory study developed in three projects for modernization. The results suggest that there is great attention to avoid technical risk, which discourages any modification of the military material. Another important aspect is the legal risk, as several projects are public-private partnerships models, and the legal aspects have a strong influence on the contract agreements, requiring the integration of law experts to the team. The supply chain is critical and the flow of material needs to be agile, but it faces several barrier, including contract constraints and on estimate actual demand to determine a priori. Historical data show that the bad forecast were the main causes of increased costs.

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What risks are common to or amplified in programmes: Evidence from UK public sector infrastructure schemes

Cited by 36 publications

References 31 publications

Application of Delphi Method in Construction Engineering and Management Research: A Quantitative Perspective

Application of Delphi Method in Construction Engineering and Management Research: A Quantitative Perspective

Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Create a Ranked Check List of Risks in a Portfolio of Railway Construction Projects

Gestão de Risco em Projetos: Um Estudo Ex-Post de Projetos de Material de Emprego Militar

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