What’s the Risk? Fearful Individuals Generally Overestimate Negative Outcomes and They Dread Outcomes of Specific Events

Abstract

Although it is an adaptive mechanism that danger usually elicits fear, it seems that fearful individuals overestimate the danger associated with their feared objects or situations. Previous research has not systematically distinguished between the estimated risk of an encounter with fear-relevant stimuli and the expected unpleasant outcomes of such encounters. Furthermore, it is not clear if biased risk perception is specific to an individual’s fear or generalized to all negative events. In an online-survey ( N = 630) we assessed the estimated risk to encounter fear-relevant stimuli and the expectations of negative outcomes of such encounters. Items contained three domains (spiders, snakes, and everyday fear triggers). In regression analyses we examined the specific associations between fear and risk estimations. In addition, we compared subgroups with specific fears and low fearful individuals. While an individual’s fear score was not related to the estimated risk of an encounter with fear-specific stimuli, it was related to an overestimation of negative outcomes in all domains. The perceived risk of aversive outcomes was most pronounced for an individual’s specific fear. Furthermore, an individual’s specific fear was most predictive of the estimated risk of a negative fear-relevant outcome. Highly fearful individuals overestimate the risk of negative outcomes of fear-relevant encounters. Specifically, they dread outcomes of encounters with their feared object. Differentiating fear-relevant components of risk perception provides insights into the cognitions which may motivate maladaptive avoidance behavior.

Dealing With the COVID-19 Infodemic: Distress by Information, Information Avoidance, and Compliance With Preventive Measures

“…Initially, 1,432 participants started the online study. However, 26.05% dropped out before completing all questions, which is comparable to dropout rates reported in other online studies (Galesic, 2006;Hengen and Alpers, 2019). The majority of dropouts occurred directly after accessing the survey.…”

Cardiovascular disease risk perception in a Hungarian community sample: psychometric evaluation of the ABCD Risk Perception Questionnaire

“…Moreover, excessive overestimation, when the perceived risk is substantially higher than the objective risk, may also cause a significant psychological burden. 15…”

Stress Makes the Difference: Social Stress and Social Anxiety in Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

“…In addition, when perceived in a decision-making situation, anxiety exhibits a powerful influence on our decision-making behavior ( Finucane et al, 2000 ; Pittig et al, 2015 ; Buelow and Barnhart, 2017 ). Anxiety in particular leads to biased risk estimations of negative events, especially of negative outcomes ( Hengen and Alpers, 2019 ). From a clinical perspective it is evident that this can lead to maladaptive avoidance behavior, which is a classificatory feature of anxiety disorders ( Hofmann et al, 2008 ).…”

“…Some researchers argue that this biased risk evaluation is a mediating factor between heightened risk perception and higher risk avoidance ( Maner and Schmidt, 2006 ; Lorian and Grisham, 2010 ). A systematic study on these fear-driven estimated risks showed heightened risk estimates for negative outcomes of fear-relevant encounters and not of the encounter itself ( Hengen and Alpers, 2019 ). Furthermore, less is clear about the distinct and interacting effects of anxiety and stress on the distinct components of risk perception.…”