When Civil Wars Recur: Conditions for Durable Peace after Civil Wars

Mason, T. David; Gürses, Mehmet; Brandt, Patrick T.; Quinn, Jason Michael

doi:10.1111/j.1528-3585.2011.00426.x

Cited by 93 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…All models point to a destabilizing effect of exclusionary management; these effects are robust to specifications using alternative measures of control variables as well as dropping postconflict episodes that were introduced by fading out. Victories reduce the risk of conflict recurrence, a finding that confirms previous research on postconflict transitions (Licklider 1995;Brandt et al 2008;Kreutz 2010;Mason et al 2011). Unexpectedly, exclusionary resource management does not result in more durable postconflict settings when preceded by military victories as predicted in Hypothesis 1a.…”

Section: The Duration Of Postconflict Stabilitysupporting

confidence: 83%

Managing Resource-related Conflict

Roy

2016

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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States endowed with valuable lootable natural resources tend to experience longer armed conflicts, more intense fighting in extractive regions and face a higher risk of recurring conflict than states without such resources. At the same time, many states defy resource-fueled conflict traps and set up institutional arrangements that seem to alleviate the risk of recurring conflict. However, policy makers and academics alike lack a sound understanding of the link between postconflict stabilization and strategies of resource management that often escape the paradigm of “good resource governance.” This article contributes to the questions of how to conceptualize diverse institutional arrangements in the resource sector and how to link these emerging institutions to postconflict stabilization. I develop a theoretical framework that predicts the risk of recurring armed conflict based on lootable resource management strategies and conditioning factors. The framework is then tested on a unique event history dataset. Results support the stabilizing effects of inclusive and publicly accountable modes of resource management as advocated for by proponents of “good resource governance.” Alternative resource management strategies either increase the risk of conflict recurrence or interact with other variables, changing the prospects of postconflict stability in important ways.

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Section: The Duration Of Postconflict Stabilitysupporting

confidence: 83%

Managing Resource-related Conflict

Roy

2016

Journal of Conflict Resolution

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“…The distinction between civil war recurrence and a subsequent civil war breaking out is not always made in studies of the durability of peace, with some defining peace “as continuing until the war resumes with the same pair of protagonists,” and others as “ending when any new civil war occurs” (Mason et al, 2011). We argue that when assessing the durability of post-civil war peace, it is important to distinguish between civil war recurrence and a subsequent civil war breaking out, not least because the causes of each may be different.…”

Section: Binary Measures Of Peace and Their Shortcomingsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Varieties of post-civil war violence

Shaw

Young

2021

Violence: An International Journal

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Quantitative research on the “durability” of peace following civil wars typically captures the breakdown or survival of “peace” in a binary manner, equating it with the presence or absence of civil war recurrence. In the datasets that underpin such studies, years that do not experience full-scale civil war are implicitly coded as “peaceful.” Yet, post-civil war environments may remain free from war recurrence, while nevertheless experiencing endemic violent crime, state repression, low-intensity political violence, and systematic violence against marginalized groups, all of which are incongruent with the concept of peace. Approaches to assessing post-civil war outcomes which focus exclusively on civil war recurrence risk overestimating the “durability” of peace, implicitly designating as “peaceful” a range of environments which may be anything but. In this article, we discuss the heterogeneity of violent post-civil war outcomes and develop a typology of “varieties of post-civil war violence.” Our typology contributes to the study of post-civil war peace durability, by serving as the basis for an alternative, categorical conceptualization of “peace years” in conflict datasets.

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“…Previous studies argue that the duration of civil war, rebel incentives, and rebel costs are a few factors that may affect the duration of peace in a post-conflict environment (Mason et al 2011). Tilly (1978) argues that dual sovereignty (which involves a legitimate group that has power over a state and an opposition group challenging such power) may lead to conflict due to competing means of obtaining power of the state.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On a similar note, Mason et al (2011) and Brandt et al (2008) argue that peace duration after civil war depends on whether the civil war ended in a rebel victory, a government victory, or a negotiated settlement. The outcome of a civil war is an important factor in peace duration because it may lead to dual sovereignty if one group did not gain complete control over the state.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A government is typically weak in a post-conflict environment because it is trying to rebuild its legitimacy. Thus, a rebel victory, government victory, or negotiated settlement may affect the duration of peace in a post-conflict environment (Mason et al 2011). The outcome of a civil war may interact with the effects of bilateral aid to affect its impact on peace duration.…”

Section: Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Explaining Peace Duration through Foreign Aid and Civil War Outcome

Martinez¹

2011

TEF

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This study explores the relationship between foreign aid and civil war outcome and analyzes the impact these factors have on peace duration in a post-conflict environment. Previous literature has focused on the factors of war duration and civil war outcome (Brandt et al. 2008;, while other scholars have observed the effect that the amount or timing of foreign aid has on political stability (Breuning and Ishiyama 2007). Previous research has not, however, examined the relationship between civil conflict outcome and sources of foreign aid to observe how the interaction of these factors may affect peace duration in a post-conflict environment.The theory holds that bilateral aid provides biased support when giving aid to recipient countries by supporting one group over another, which may decrease peace duration depending on the civil war outcome. Interaction variables are created to measure the relationship between civil conflict outcome and foreign aid in a post-conflict environment. A logit regression model is used to test my theory regarding the relationship between the interaction of foreign aid and civil war outcome with peace duration. Ultimately, I found that the relationship between the civil war outcomes of government victory and truce and a high bilateral aid ratio has a significant effect on peace duration. Specifically, a high proportion of bilateral aid in a truce civil war outcome has a greater probability of durable peace than a government victory in a post-conflict environment.

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When Civil Wars Recur: Conditions for Durable Peace after Civil Wars

Cited by 93 publications

References 52 publications

Managing Resource-related Conflict

Managing Resource-related Conflict

Varieties of post-civil war violence

Explaining Peace Duration through Foreign Aid and Civil War Outcome

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