Where is the EU–UK relationship heading? A conjoint survey experiment of Brexit trade-offs

Abstract

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) is the start of a new relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU). As the consequences of Brexit unfold, there will be pressure to change the TCA, either in a “softer” or “harder” direction. To determine the potential medium-term direction of the EU–UK relationship, we conducted a conjoint survey experiment with a sample of British voters, where we asked them to choose between different hypothetical package deals. When faced with such choices, British citizens overall mostly support a softer relationship in which the UK applies EU regulatory standards in return for greater access to the single market. However, Leave voters most often support a much harder trade-off of full regulatory sovereignty but continued restrictions on UK exports.

A blessing and a curse? Examining public preferences for differentiated integration

“…The YouGov survey was commissioned by the European University Institute (EUI) and was fielded in fourteen countries: Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. For our analyses, we exclude the UK due to Brexit, because we do not focus on external differentiation in this study (but see Hix et al, 2023: for interesting insights on this topic). For more information on the YouGov survey, including the sample, please see the Online appendix.…”

Differentiated integration in the European Union: Institutional effects, public opinion, and alternative flexibility arrangements

“…In addition, the DI of non-member states in the EU-that is, external differentiation, established, for instance, through the EEA for the Single Market-is unparalleled in the world of federal states. While most contributions to this special issue focus on horizontal internal differentiation, De Blok and De Vries (2023) and Hix et al (2023) also cover vertical internal differentiation and external differentiation, respectively. Furthermore, the literature distinguishes different types or modes of horizontal DI.…”

“…Finally, it is important to consider the legitimacy of external differentiation. The article by Hix et al (2023) examines the complexity surrounding the legitimacy of Brexit as a form of external differentiation. Specifically, it focuses on the preferences of the British public concerning the longer-term relationship with the EU.…”

“…In a bounded rationality perspective (Jones, 1999), however, the decision takers mostly member state governments, may be unable or unwilling to gauge the effects of their DI choices. DI adds to the already significant complexity of the EU's multilevel and compound system of governance.…”

Differentiation in the European Union and beyond

“…Yet, differentiation requires flexibility on both sides. It will not work if those who demand self-rule conceive sovereignty as all or nothing, as did many “Leave” campaigners in the Brexit referendum (Hix et al, 2023; Hobolt, 2016; Sobolewska and Ford, 2020). Differentiation cannot satisfy intransigent nationalists who reject shared rule as rule by foreigners.…”