Whether the CMIP5 Models Can Reproduce the Long-Range Correlation of Daily Precipitation?

Abstract

In this study, we investigated the performance of nine CMIP5 models for global daily precipitation by comparing with NCEP data from 1960 to 2005 based on the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method. We found that NCEP daily precipitation exhibits long-range correlation (LRC) characteristics in most regions of the world. The LRC of daily precipitation over the central of North American continent is the strongest in summer, while the LRC of precipitation is the weakest for the equatorial central Pacific Ocean. The zonal average scaling exponents of NCEP daily precipitation are smaller in middle and high latitudes than those in the tropics. The scaling exponents are above 0.9 over the tropical middle and east Pacific Ocean for the year and four seasons. Most CMIP5 models can capture the characteristic that zonal mean scaling exponents of daily precipitation reach the peak in the tropics, and then decrease rapidly with the latitude increasing. The zonal mean scaling exponents simulated by CMCC-CMS, GFDL-ESM2G and IPSL-CM5A-MR show consistencies with those of NCEP, while BCC_CSM1.1(m) and FGOALS-g2 cannot capture the seasonal variations of daily precipitation’s LRC. The biases of scaling exponents between CMIP5 models and NCEP are smaller in the high latitudes, and even less than the absolute value of 0.05 in some regions, including Arctic Ocean, Siberian, Southern Ocean and Antarctic. However, for Western Africa, Eastern Africa, Tropical Eastern Pacific and Northern South America, the simulated biases of scaling exponents are greater than the absolute value of 0.05 for the year and all four seasons. In general, the spatial biases of LRC simulated by GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO and INM-CM4 are relatively small, which indicating that the LRC characteristics of daily precipitation are well simulated by these models.

Spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration and its potential relationship with drought under different scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China

“…Global climate models (GCMs) play an important role in estimating the evolution of climate variables. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) provides GCM data for current simulations and future predictions and has been widely used for past climate and future climate change predictions (Boland et al ., 2017; Pathak et al ., 2019; Dong et al ., 2021b). The “representative concentration path” of the latest generation scenario proposed by the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) improved the quantity and quality of observational data, enabling analyses to be performed in more comprehensive and diversified manners (Afshar et al ., 2017; Pandey et al ., 2019; Bao et al ., 2020).…”