Who Becomes a Member of Congress? Evidence From De-Anonymized Census Data

Abstract

We link future members of Congress to the de-anonymized 1940 census to offer a uniquely detailed analysis of how economically unrepresentative American politicians were in the 20th century, and why. Future members under the age of 18 in 1940 grew up in households with parents who earned more than twice as much as the population average and who were more than 6 times as likely as the general population to hold college degrees. However, compared to siblings who did not become politicians, future members of Congress between the ages of 18 and 40 in 1940 were higher-earners and more educated, indicating that socioeconomic background alone does not explain the differences between politicians and non-politicians. Examining a smaller sample of candidates that includes non-winners, we find that the candidate pool is much higher-earning and more educated than the general population. At the same time, among the candidate pool, elections advantage candidates with higher earnings ability and education. We conclude that barriers to entry likely deter a more economically representative candidate pool, but that electoral advantages for more-educated individuals with more private-sector success also play an important role.

Seniority-Based Nominations and Political Careers

“… 2 Participants in the “administrative data revolution” include, Dahlgaard and Pedersen (2020), Dancygier et al (2015), Hyytinen et al (2018a), and Oskarsson, Dawes, and Lindgren (2018) and a spate of papers, including Bhusal et al (2020) and Thompson et al (2019), directly inspired by Dal Bó et al (2017). …”

“…While there is an extensive comparative literature on candidate selection and recruitment, standard surveys (e.g., Gallagher and Marsh 1988;Norris 1997) do 1 The terms "static ambition" and "progressive ambition" stem from seminal work on US politics including Black (1972), Rohde (1979), and Schlesinger (1966). 2 Participants in the "administrative data revolution" include, Dahlgaard and Pedersen (2020), Dancygier et al (2015), Hyytinen et al (2018a), and Oskarsson, Dawes, and Lindgren (2018) and a spate of papers, including Bhusal et al (2020) and Thompson et al (2019), directly inspired by Dal Bó et al (2017). not mention the possibility that parties use seniority systems in allocating their nominations.…”

Experience, institutions, and candidate emergence: the political career returns to state legislative service

“…There is a sizeable literature investigating the determinants of candidate selection at varying levels of government and across institutional contexts. Underscoring the importance of understanding political selection are the established links between politicians' backgrounds and policy outcomes, with broader implications for representation of diverse societies (Lawless, 2004;Lee et al, 2004;Washington, 2008;Carnes, 2013;Miler, 2018;Thompson et al, 2019). Our paper is also related to the literature examining self-selection into politics (e.g., Mattozzi and Merlo, 2008;Fox and Lawless, 2011;Dal Bó and Finan, 2018).…”

Immigration Policy and Hispanics' Willingness to Run for Office

“…For example,Anagol and Fujiwara (2016); Bhalotra, Clots-Figueras, and Iyer (2018); DalBó (2017);Osborne and Slivinski (1996);Thompson et al (2019).…”