[1] When the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is southward, most of the ionospheric potential is generated by merging between the IMF and the magnetospheric field. Typically, the ionospheric potential responds linearly to the magnitude of the southward IMF. However, when the IMF magnitude is large, the ionospheric potential saturates and it becomes relatively insensitive to further increases in the IMF magnitude. We present evidence from simulations that under purely southward IMF conditions, the value of the portion of the potential due to reconnection is controlled by the divergence of the magnetosheath flow, which determines the geoeffective length in the solar wind. Typically, the gradient in the plasma pressure controls the magnetosheath flow, so as the southward IMF increases in magnitude, the change in the magnetosheath force balance is negligible, the geoeffective length in the solar wind does not change, and the reconnection potential increases linearly with the magnitude of the IMF. However, when the IMF magnitude increases to the point where J × B becomes the dominant force in the magnetosheath, further increases in IMF magnitude do affect the overall force balance, diverting more flow away from the merging line, decreasing the geoeffective length, and limiting the global merging rate. Thus magnetosheath force balance can be seen as a single organizing factor that regulates the geoeffective length in the solar wind for the entire range of solar wind parameters.