Will Australian liquefied natural gas demand soar under the 21st Annual Conference of the Parties (COP21) targets?

Abstract

The ambitious 21st Annual Conference of the Parties (COP21) targets of over 200 countries to limit global warming require a significant reduction in green house gas (GHG) emissions by signatories; these reductions will require major shifts in the way that countries think about their supply mix. Although renewables are often the primary focus of emissions reductions, the role of natural gas in GHG emissions warrants consideration. Gas is ‘triple A’: affordable, abundant and available. It is also lower in GHG than other fossil fuel alternatives. The future success and price stability of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects is intrinsically linked to the success of natural gas as a bridge fuel to a lower carbon future; although there was initial optimism about the potential of natural gas as a bridge fuel under COP21, further analysis shows that forecast demand for natural gas and LNG in new policy scenarios is likely lower than original forecasts, placing Australian producers’ existing and future projects in a challenging position; moving down the cost-curve where possible is the best way to ensure resilient demand even in a slower growth future environment.