Will China's water resources be safe in 2030?

Abstract

This paper is distinct from existing studies on water resources carrying capacity which usually use dimensionless data to represent trend and status of water resources carrying capacity. Here, on the grounds of the most stringent water resource management system and following the principles of water determining population, water determining city scale, water determining production and so on, water resources carrying capacity prediction model was established. The water resources carrying capacity was represented by population, which can directly reflect the status of water resources. Under the rigid constraints of water use quantity and water use efficiency, six scenarios were set to predict China's maximum population in 2030. The results demonstrated that the maximum population in each scenario is close to 1.45 billion of National Population Development Plan. It means water resources rigid constraints can support population and economic growth at the socio-economic development current pace and path. Total water use quantity will not break through the limit of 800–900 billion m3 when achieving the expected goals of social and economic development, not even more than 700 billion m3. Meanwhile, in order to relieve water resources stress, to improve water resources carrying capacity, and to accelerate construction of a water-saving society, some suggestions were put forward.

Economic size and water use efficiency: an empirical analysis of trends across China

“…In the following work, we will use the cubic curve model in this paper to simulate and predict the future water demand and peak water in China, coupled with determining whether the water use limit of 700 billion m 3 will be breached by 2030 ( Jiao, 2011;Guo & Wang, 2021).…”

“…The values of MAPE and RMSE are mostly around 3-4%, coupled with the values of R 2 are greater 0.95, and p-values are much larger Moreover, to reflect the effectiveness of the fitting model intuitively, the comparison diagrams (see Figure 2) from four significantly different provinces were drawn, including Hebei, Shanghai, Hunan, and Xinjiang. They have different socio-economic environments and development as well as resources endowment (Guo & Wang, 2021). It can be obtained from the parameters in the fitting model that regional development level (per capita GDP) is responsible for water use efficiency.…”

Multi-Level Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation for Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xuzhou City, China

“…To predict the WRCC of Xuzhou City more scientifically and reasonably, it is necessary to study the WRCC under different scenarios [33,[79][80][81][82]. In this paper, the WRCC of Xuzhou was predicted in four development scenarios: sustainable development mode, water conservation mode, rapid socioeconomic development mode, and adjustment of industrial structure mode.…”

The water dispatching of river basins during dry periods under the most stringent water management system in China

“…Since the establishment of the most stringent water management system in 2011, China has achieved the sustainable utilization of water resources, and increasing numbers of studies have evaluated the effects of this system on water resources management (Shang et al, 2017;He et al, 2021). For example, Guo & Wang (2021) established a prediction model to evaluate the carrying capacity of water resources in China in 2030 under this water resources management system. Chen et al (2018) constructed a rough set cloud model to assess the vulnerability of the water resources of the Huai River Basin in China, and indicated the existence of severe vulnerability despite the water resources management system.…”