Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe?

Abstract

As a result of climate change in recent past and unsustainable land management, drought became one of the most impacting disasters and, with the projected global warming, it is expected to progressively cause more damages by the end of the 21st century. This study investigates changes in drought occurrence, frequency, and severity in Europe in the next decades. A combined indicator based on the predominance of the drought signal over normal/wet conditions has been used. The indicator, which combines the standardized precipitation index (SPI, which accounts for anomalous low rainfall), the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI, which accounts for high temperatures and scarce precipitations), and the reconnaissance drought indicator (RDI, similar to SPEI but more affected by extreme events), has been computed at 3-and 12-month accumulation scales to characterize trends in seasonal and annual events from 1981 to 2100. Climate data from 11 bias-adjusted high-resolution (0.11 ∘ ) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX (coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment) have been used in the analyses. For each simulation, the frequency and severity of drought and extreme drought events for , and 2071-2100 have been analysed. Under the moderate emission scenario (RCP4.5), droughts are projected to become increasingly more frequent and severe in the Mediterranean area, western Europe, and Northern Scandinavia, whereas the whole European continent, with the exception of Iceland, will be affected by more frequent and severe extreme droughts under the most severe emission scenario (RCP8.5), especially after 2070. Seasonally, drought frequency is projected to increase everywhere in Europe for both scenarios in spring and summer, especially over southern Europe, and less intensely in autumn; on the contrary, winter shows a decrease in drought frequency over northern Europe.

Drought Analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin Using the Standardized Precipitation Index

“…Instead, the dry conditions detected in North Africa could be associated with the well-documented Sahelian drought, which results from the response of the African summer monsoon to oceanic forcing, amplified by land-atmosphere interaction [79]. Finally, as evidenced also by Spinoni et al [42], Central Europe is known to be the transition area between wetting northeastern and drying southwestern European countries, which was reflected in mixed or negligible drought tendencies.…”

Observed Northward Migration of Agro‐Climate Zones in Europe Will Further Accelerate Under Climate Change

“…While changing climate is likely codetermining the European land use patterns, we emphasize that climate change is acting on a background of socioeconomic and political factors that have substantially contributed to changes in crop harvested areas in Europe during the last 30 years. Nevertheless, the observed increase in intensity and frequency of climatic extremes has already exposed the need for effective policy guidance in the presence of agro-climate zone migration in order to improve resilience of cropping systems to future climate (Spinoni et al, 2018;Toreti, Belward, et al, 2019). During this time, western Europe has benefited from the funding mechanisms under EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), although the extent to which CAP has triggered or prevented land use change is not well established.…”

Monthly Prediction of Drought Classes Using Log-Linear Models under the Influence of NAO for Early-Warning of Drought and Water Management

“…The choice of the baseline period relative to which standardized drought indicators are calculated is a key factor [23]. If a shorter period (e.g., 30 years) characterized by frequent and severe droughts is used as a baseline, this may impinge influence on the indicator's trend over the entire period [23].…”

“…If a shorter period (e.g., 30 years) characterized by frequent and severe droughts is used as a baseline, this may impinge influence on the indicator's trend over the entire period [23]. This study focuses on class transitions over a long-term period, so we decided to use the entire period as the baseline, thus ensuring more robust comparisons.…”