Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?

Abstract

Hurricane track forecasts have improved steadily over the past few decades, yet forecasting hurricane intensity remains challenging. Of special concern are the rare instances of tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties. Here, we review two historical examples of such events and use scaling arguments and models to show that rapid intensification just before landfall is likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms.

Influence of global warming on the rapid intensification of western North Pacific tropical cyclones

“…Studies on TC intensity change and rapid intensification (RI) can be classified into three groups such as large-scale atmospheric, oceanic, and TC inner-core processes (Gao et al 2016), which include vertical wind shear, upper-level tropospheric divergence, relative humidity, sea surface temperature, ocean heat content, eyewall replacement, and so on. Characteristics and mechanisms associated with RI have been explored mostly from an operational perspective (Wang and Zhou 2008, Rappaport et al 2012, Elsberry 2014, Emanuel 2017, Wang et al 2017. However, real-time forecasting of TC RI remains a big challenge as the myriad physical mechanisms and their environmental connections need greater clarification (Elsberry et al 2007, Kaplan et al 2010, Lin et al 2013, Rogers et al 2013.…”

On the hypothesized outflow control of tropical cyclone intensification

“…This question is relevant in view of recent studies that invoke the revised theory for the determination of a universal tangential wind profile for a hurricane (Chavas and Lin, ) and as support for the integrity of a redefined WISHE intensification theory (Zhang and Emanuel, ). The question is relevant also because the Emanuel () theory has been invoked recently to suggest that tropical cyclones will be more prone to rapid intensification in a warmer climate, with the rate of storm intensification scaling as the square of the potential intensity (Emanuel, ).…”

Satellite Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves Associated With the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

“…In recent years, significant improvements have been made in track forecasting (Rappaport et al, 2009), but only modest improvements have been made in intensity forecasting (DeMaria et al, 2014). In particular, forecasting the rapid intensification of TCs is still a scientific challenge (DeMaria et al, 2014;Emanuel, 2017). Hurricane Joaquin during the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is a primary example of the difficulties in predicting TC intensity.…”