Will history repeat itself? Economic convergence and convergence in energy use patterns

Jakob, Michael; Haller, Markus; Marschinski, Robert

doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.008

Cited by 136 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Third, although industrialized countries on average have decarbonized their energy systems since the 1980s, the share of coal has increased in non-Annex I countries. These data are in line with the observation that economic convergence is closely related to a convergence in energy-use patterns (6).…”

Section: Significancesupporting

confidence: 75%

Drivers for the renaissance of coal

Steckel

Edenhofer

Jakob

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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117

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Coal was central to the industrial revolution, but in the 20th century it increasingly was superseded by oil and gas. However, in recent years coal again has become the predominant source of global carbon emissions. We show that this trend of rapidly increasing coal-based emissions is not restricted to a few individual countries such as China. Rather, we are witnessing a global renaissance of coal majorly driven by poor, fast-growing countries that increasingly rely on coal to satisfy their growing energy demand. The low price of coal relative to gas and oil has played an important role in accelerating coal consumption since the end of the 1990s. In this article, we show that in the increasingly integrated global coal market the availability of a domestic coal resource does not have a statistically significant impact on the use of coal and related emissions. These findings have important implications for climate change mitigation: If future economic growth of poor countries is fueled mainly by coal, ambitious mitigation targets very likely will become infeasible. Building new coal power plant capacities will lead to lock-in effects for the next few decades. If that lock-in is to be avoided, international climate policy must find ways to offer viable alternatives to coal for developing countries. Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to limit and reduce greenhouse gas emission to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (1), global emissions have continued to rise steadily. Since 1971 global annual energy-related CO 2 emissions have more than doubled (Fig. 1A). In recent years emission growth has accelerated further, interrupted only briefly during the recent economic crisis. Assessments of the factors driving these developments using the Kaya* identity have identified growing per-capita incomes, especially in developing and newly industrializing countries, as the dominant reason for rising emissions (2, 3). [The Kaya* identity decomposes changes in emissions into changes in population, percapita income, the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP), and the carbon intensity of energy production. See Steckel et al. (2) for further information.] However, the growing carbon intensity of energy production (i.e., the amount of emissions generated to produce one unit of energy) also has played an important role, and the increased use of coal has been particularly important (2). Coal consumption not only has risen in line with a growing global economy but has outpaced the growth of total energy use. Although coal was central to the industrial revolution (4), it increasingly was superseded by oil and gas in the 20th century. With these recent developments, however, coal again has become the most important source of energy-related emissions on the global scale (Fig. 1B).The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (5) identifies the replacement of coalfired power plants by less carbon-intensive energy technologies as one of the most cost-efficient options...

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Section: Significancesupporting

confidence: 75%

Drivers for the renaissance of coal

Steckel

Edenhofer

Jakob

2015

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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117

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“…The second part of our analysis fits in the research area known as index number decomposition analysis (see Ang and Zhang 2000 and Liu and Ang 2007 for recent surveys). The final part of our analysis relates to recent work on cross-country convergence of energy-or emission intensities (see, for example, Aldy 2006, Jakob et al 2012, Liddle 2009, Markandya et al 2006, Miketa and Mulder 2005, Mulder and De Groot 2007, Romero-Avila 2008, Sun 2002) and extends the decomposition approach developed by Wong (2006).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural Change and Convergence of Energy Intensity Across OECD Countries, 1970-2005

Mulder

Groot

2012

SSRN Journal

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“…1 This trend is reinforced by a global "renaissance" of coal that leads to an increasing carbonization of the global energy system (Steckel et al, 2011). These trends in economic development, energy use, and carbon emissions in developing countries suggest that they are replicating the pattern observed in the past in today's rich countries - albeit at an accelerated pace (Jakob et al 2012b). This is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows per--capita CO 2 emissions against per--capita GDP.…”

Section: IImentioning

confidence: 73%

Feasible mitigation actions in developing countries

et al. 2014

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Abstract'Preventing dangerous anthropogenic climate change' (UNFCCC 1992) will only be feasible with substantial emission reductions below the business--as--usual case in developing countries. Because of the central role of energy for economic development, reducing emissions in developing countries without undermining their development goals requires a fundamental structural break of the historical correlation between economic growth and GHG emissions. While possible in theory, such a transformation of the global energy system would impose considerable costs on developing countries. Even if these costs were fully covered by industrialized countries, mitigation measures could still be unattractive to developing countries due to a possible 'climate rent curse' through which financial inflows negatively affect recipients' economic performance. Mitigation measures could further meet resistance because of adverse distributional impacts and political economy reasons. Hence, we caution against overly optimistic expectations regarding the opportunities to drastically re--orient development paths towards low--carbon growth. Instead, we suggest that mitigation efforts in developing countries should focus on 'feasible mitigation actions' that seek to maximize mitigation as a positive co--benefit of policies with different objectives.2

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Will history repeat itself? Economic convergence and convergence in energy use patterns

Cited by 136 publications

References 39 publications

Drivers for the renaissance of coal

Drivers for the renaissance of coal

Structural Change and Convergence of Energy Intensity Across OECD Countries, 1970-2005

Feasible mitigation actions in developing countries

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