Wind Energy Electrical Power Generation: Industrial Life Cycle of a Radical Innovation

Abstract

This study addresses past, current and future development of the wind electrical power industry, that began prior to 1890 in Cleveland, Ohio and Askov, Denmark... Overcoming technological, business, societal and political hurdles required approximately 120 years of exploration to establish wind electricity generation as a radical innovation entering the acceleration stage of the industrial technology life cycle. Further growth and maturation is expected to continue to z 2100, corresponding to a life cycle of _ 210 years. This finding has profound implications for radical innovation theory and practice, since historical analysis attributes a 50-60 year life cycle for 5 industrial revolutions, and emerging theory anticipates acceleration of radical innovation, as discussed in companion papers in this conference.Rapid growth in installed capacity of large scale wind turbines (>1MNW) now positions wind electrical power generation in the Acceleration Stage, characterized by market competition between dominant wind turbine designs and societal acceptance by wind energy communities of practice in Europe, North America and Asia. Technical cost model based learning curve projections of Cost of Electricity (COE) suggest that by 2020 COE from wind will be competitive, without tax incentives, with electricity from conventional fossil and nuclear fuel sources. Capture by wind energy of up to 20% of the world electricity market appears likely by the end of the 21st Century.

Principles and Practice of Accelerated Radical Innovation

“…As of this writing, the ARI methodology has been applied retrospectively to an innovation under way in the energy sector (on-and off-shore wind energy) and the biotechnology sector (monochromatic x-rays for cancer diagnosis and treatment), as reported in two companion papers [29,32]. And it is now being put to the test by the University of Leeds White Rose Health Innovation Partnership in a pilot program, "Accelerating Innovation in Health," in the United Kingdom.…”

Trends in the technological development of wind energy generation

“…During the nineteenth century, thousands of mechanical windmills with rotors 25 metres in diameter were operated in France, Germany and Holland. These countries had 90 per cent of the mechanical energy used in the wind energy industry (Dismukes et al 2007).…”

“…The first windmill used to generate electricity was a system built by Charles F. Brush in Cleveland, Ohio, in 1888 (Dismukes et al 2007;Dutra 2007). The machine had a rotor with 144 blades, making it 17 metres in diameter with a large tail hinged to rotate the wind rotor.…”

“…The advent of power plants in 1882 in New York and 1884 in Germany, followed by the introduction of the electric power production phase in 1890, provided a technological basis for the construction of wind turbines for electric power generation in lieu of mechanical energy (Dismukes et al 2007). Danish scientist and engineer, Poul La Cour, was an entrepreneur in the field of electricity generation using wind power in 1891 in Askov, Denmark.…”

“…Between 1973 and 1986, the turbines were used in wind farms with applications connected to computers, generating between 50 and 600 kW. In 1987, Sandia developed a Darrieus turbine, which had symmetrical profiles, was 34m high and generated 625 kW of power (Dismukes et al 2007). These machines had inefficiency at startup, requiring a starter to begin the operation.…”