Wind Turbine Design Cost and Scaling Model

Fingersh, Lee; Hand, M.; Laxson, A.

doi:10.2172/897434

Cited by 430 publications

(543 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…In each table, the left-hand column shows the data source. "Model" refers to the techno-economic models used, such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) wind turbine design cost and scaling model (Fingersh et al 2006. "Market" indicates that NREL used current market data, with individual data sources listed in vi sections of this paper related to the specific cost components.…”

Section: Key Inputs and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

2011 Cost of Wind Energy Review

Tegen¹,

Lantz²,

Hand³

et al. 2013

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Section: Key Inputs and Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

2011 Cost of Wind Energy Review

Tegen¹,

Lantz²,

Hand³

et al. 2013

Self Cite

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“…were taken from an NREL study (Fingersh et al, 2006). The report contained information about how 246 the various components could be scaled using semi-empirical formulas.…”

Section: Mass Scaling Equations 244mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of technology improvement opportunities for a 1.5 MW wind turbine using a hybrid stochastic approach in life cycle assessment

2016

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“…Using an NREL scaling model described in Fingersh et al (2006), turbine upscaling alone-not considering other design advancements, which have also improved the performance of modern turbines and resulted in improved grid interactions-has been estimated to be responsible for $114/kW of the turbine price increases observed from 2003 to 2008 in the United States, representing the single largest factor driving prices higher over this time period . Over the time period from 2006 through 2010, Ceña andSimonot (2011) attribute upwards of 50%-70% of individual nacelle, blade, and tower raw material cost increases to the impacts of increased material use (weight) in the larger turbines of today.…”

Section: Capital Cost Reductions: 1980-2003mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Under that project, an array of system design studies was used to understand how various innovation opportunities might affect turbine performance into the future. These results were ultimately tied to cost functions to quantify their impact on turbine and project costs (Fingersh et al 2006). More recent NREL modeling work that builds upon these studies suggests that performance increases on the order of 20% and cost reductions on the order of 10% over the next one to two decades are possible but may require additional technological advancements not captured by the WindPACT studies (e.g., Lantz and Hand 2011).…”

Section: Engineering Model Examplesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Advanced design concepts considered by Fingersh et al (2006) suggest that higher tower heights might be achieved in the future with only incremental cost increases. Advanced control systems and integrated system design are considered critical for reducing tower loading and allowing for the development and application of lower-cost tower and foundation designs (UpWind 2011, U.S. DOE 2008).…”

Section: Tower Conceptsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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IEA Wind Task 26: The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy, Work Package 2

Lantz¹,

Wiser²,

Hand³

2012

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Executive SummaryOver the past 30 years, wind power has become a mainstream source of electricity generation around the world. However, the future of wind power will depend a great deal on the ability of the industry to continue to achieve cost of energy reductions. This summary report, developed as part of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Wind Implementing Agreement Task 26, The Cost of Wind Energy, provides a review of historical costs, evaluates near-term market trends, reviews the methods used to estimate long-term cost trajectories, and summarizes the range of costs projected for onshore wind energy across an array of forward-looking studies and scenarios. It also highlights high-level market variables that have influenced wind energy costs in the past and are expected to do so into the future. Historical and Near-Term Trends in the Levelized Cost of Wind EnergyBetween 1980 and the early 2000s, significant reductions in capital cost and increases in performance had the combined effect of dramatically reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for onshore wind energy. Data from three different historical evaluations, including internal analysis by the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory (LBNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as well as published estimates from Lemming et al. (2009) and the Danish Energy Agency (DEA) (1999), illustrate that the LCOE of wind power declined by a factor of more than three, from more than $150/MWh to approximately $50/MWh between 1980s and the early 2000s ( Figure ES-1). However, beginning in about 2003 and continuing through the latter half of the past decade, wind power capital costs increased-driven by rising commodity and raw materials prices, increased labor costs, improved manufacturer profitability, and turbine upscaling-thus pushing wind's LCOE upward in spite of continued performance improvements ( Figure ES-1). Sources: LBNL/NREL (internal analysis), Lemming et al. 2009, and DEA 1999 [2012][2013] suggests that the LCOE of onshore wind energy is now at an all-time low within fixed wind resource classes, and particularly in low and medium wind speed areas ( Figure ES-2). Moreover, the fact that capital costs remain higher than in the early 2000s but that those increased costs are rewarded by improved performance and a lower LCOE demonstrates the fundamental interdependence of capital cost and performance in wind turbine and project design. Long-term Trends in Wind Energy LCOEFurther into the future, the LCOE of wind energy is expected to continue to fall, at least on a global basis and within fixed wind resource classes. Performance improvements associated with continued turbine upscaling and design advancements are anticipated, and lower capital costs may also be achievable. The magnitude of future cost reductions, however, is highly uncertain.Estimates of the future cost of onshore wind energy conducted to date have often been the result of an iterative process that incorporates some combination of historical trends, learning curve anal...

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Wind Turbine Design Cost and Scaling Model

Cited by 430 publications

References 7 publications

2011 Cost of Wind Energy Review

2011 Cost of Wind Energy Review

Analysis of technology improvement opportunities for a 1.5 MW wind turbine using a hybrid stochastic approach in life cycle assessment

IEA Wind Task 26: The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy, Work Package 2

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