Wind versus Nuclear Options for Generating Electricity in a Carbon‐Constrained World: Strategizing in an Energy‐Rich Economy

Kooten, G. Cornelis van; Johnston, Craig M.T.; Wong, Linda

doi:10.1093/ajae/aas094

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Surprisingly, compared to other studies [11]; [4], the model results indicate that wind and nuclear energy can coexist, but not in all cases. For the 2011–2015 wind regimes, it would pay to invest in the full complement of 3500 turbines along with an average of about 3600 MW of nuclear power compared to an average of nearly 6500 MW of nuclear capacity for the period 2006–2011 when wind speed regimes led to lower levels of wind power and smaller investments in wind turbines.…”

Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 92%

“…The Alberta grid allocation model is described in various places; here we provide a brief description as found in [4]. The Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO) is considered to be the decision maker, so the AESO’s profit function can be written as: where Π is profit ($); i refers to the generation source (coal, CT gas, wind, etc.…”

Section: Alberta Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To determine how generation is allocated across assets in each hour, we use an existing grid model for Alberta that optimizes load across assets [4]. The grid allocation model is annual with an hourly time step, and assumes rational expectations on the part of the grid operator/asset owner.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta

2016

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This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%.

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Section: Resultscontrasting

confidence: 92%

Section: Alberta Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta

2016

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“…I came to precisely the same conclusion using a mathematical programming model of the Alberta electricity grid (see van Kooten et al ). Externality costs associated with wind turbines, such as noise and visual dis‐amenities, matter only in certain situations (e.g., wind farms placed near shore).…”

mentioning

confidence: 72%

“…But it also reflects policies to reduce CO 2 emissions, with the highest emission intensities associated with coal and then oil, followed by gas. Natural gas is expected to grow significantly because of its falling price relative to coal and oil, lower CO 2 emissions, and because it is reliable, easily transportable, and crucial for backstopping wind power (van Kooten et al ; van Kooten ,b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

FELLOWS ADDRESS California Dreaming: The Economics of Renewable Energy

Kooten

2017

Canadian J Agri Economics

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California was the first jurisdiction to mandate a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. This target was subsequently endorsed by the G8 in 2009 and the European Commission in 2014, and is the guiding principle of the 2015 Paris Agreement. To achieve these targets will require near elimination of fossil fuels and/or a technological breakthrough that might be considered a black swan event. Eschewing nuclear power, countries are relying on renewable energy sources to meet future energy needs. In this paper, I examine the prospects of reducing GHG emissions by 80% by first summarizing extant global energy sources and production, trends, and projections of energy demand, and the potential mix of future energy sources. I consider the role of conservation and then focus on the electricity sector to determine how wind and biomass could contribute to the 80% target. I conclude that these ambitious targets cannot be attained without nuclear power.La Californie aété la première juridictionà mandater une réduction desémissions de gazà effet de serre (GES) de 80 % sous les niveaux de 1990 d'ici 2050. Cette cible a ensuiteété appuyée par le G8 en 2009 et la Commission européenne en 2014 et sert de principe directeurà l'Accord de Paris de 2015. L'atteinte de ces cibles nécessitera la quasi-élimination des combustibles fossiles ou une avancée technologique pouvantêtre qualifiée de « cygne noir ». Mettant de côté l énergie nucléaire, les pays se fientà des sources renouvelables d énergie pour répondre aux besoinsénergétiques du futur. Cet article examine les perspectives de réduction desémissions de GES de 80 % en résumant, en premier lieu, les sources et la production globales d énergies existantes, les tendances et les projections concernant les besoinsénergétiques, et une combinaison potentielle de sources d énergie futures. Le rôle de conservation est ensuite discuté suivi d'un examen du secteurélectrique pour déterminer comment le vent et la biomasse pourraient contribuerà l'objectif du 80 %. La conclusion proposée veut que cette cible ambitieuse ne puisseêtre atteinte sans recoursà l énergie nucléaire.

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Economics of co-firing coal and biomass: An application to Western Canada

Johnston

Kooten

2015

Energy Economics

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Co-firing biomass and coal in retrofitted power plants is an efficient means to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the energy sector. Under IPCC reporting rules, the impacts of energy produced from biomass would not be reported in the energy sector, thereby effectively lowering the emissions intensity of a power plant. In this study, a carbon tax is compared to a feed-in tariff for incentivizing conversion of coal plants to co-fire with biomass. In the application, a model of the Alberta electrical grid with an intertie to British Columbia is linked to a fibre transportation model for these provinces. Results indicate that there is an upper threshold on a carbon tax after which retrofitting of coal plants is less efficient than increasing natural gas generating capacity. This is not the case with a feed-in tariff as it specifically targets biomass energy. Although the optimal generating mix achieved with a carbon tax leads to lower aggregate emissions than the mix achieved using a feed-in tariff, it will result in higher average generating costs. Results indicate that it is optimal for Alberta to retrofit approximately 500 MW of current coal capacity (8.6%) to co-fire with biomass, although Alberta wood pellet production acts as a constraint on further conversions.

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Wind versus Nuclear Options for Generating Electricity in a Carbon‐Constrained World: Strategizing in an Energy‐Rich Economy

Cited by 8 publications

References 3 publications

Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta

Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta

FELLOWS ADDRESS California Dreaming: The Economics of Renewable Energy

Economics of co-firing coal and biomass: An application to Western Canada

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