Winning Hearts and Minds through Development: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan

Beath, Andrew; Christia, Fotini; Ениколопов, Рубен

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1809677

Cited by 72 publications

(102 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…We next proceed to investigate how key combatant variables are associated with the degree of agreement (or disagreement) on the estimated levels of ISAF support across the list and endorsement experiments. In Figure , we present the results with respect to two variables identified by the existing literature as determinants of civilian attitudes and actions in civil war: (1) the amount of aid or development funds allocated to a given village or area (Beath, Christia, and Enikolopov ; Berman, Shapiro, and Felter ; U.S. Army ), here measured by the district‐level Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP) spending (top panel); and (2) the level of control (Kalyvas ) exerted by the Taliban and ISAF at the district level in the months before our survey was conducted (bottom panel).…”

Section: Results Of the Multivariate Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing and Combining List and Endorsement Experiments: Evidence from Afghanistan

Blair

Imai

Lyall

2014

American J Political Sci

133

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List and endorsement experiments are becoming increasingly popular among social scientists as indirect survey techniques for sensitive questions. When studying issues such as racial prejudice and support for militant groups, these survey methodologies may improve the validity of measurements by reducing nonresponse and social desirability biases. We develop a statistical test and multivariate regression models for comparing and combining the results from list and endorsement experiments. We demonstrate that when carefully designed and analyzed, the two survey experiments can produce substantively similar empirical findings. Such agreement is shown to be possible even when these experiments are applied to one of the most challenging research environments: contemporary Afghanistan. We find that both experiments uncover similar patterns of support for the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) among Pashtun respondents. Our findings suggest that multiple measurement strategies can enhance the credibility of empirical conclusions. Open-source software is available for implementing the proposed methods.

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Section: Results Of the Multivariate Statistical Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing and Combining List and Endorsement Experiments: Evidence from Afghanistan

Blair

Imai

Lyall

2014

American J Political Sci

133

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…From the Vietnam-era Hamlet Evaluation System (HES) to contemporary efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, winning the "hearts and minds" of the civilian population -or at least an important subset of it -is a central element of counterinsurgency campaigns. Surprisingly, however, there are few rigorous empirical studies of civilian attitudes toward combatants during wartime (see Beath, Christia and Enikolopov, 2011, for a recent exception). To be sure, this gap is due in part to the logistical and ethical issues that accompany survey research in a wartime setting.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan

2013

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How are civilian attitudes toward combatants affected by wartime victimization? Are these effects conditional on which combatant inflicted the harm? We investigate the determinants of wartime civilian attitudes towards combatants using a survey experiment across 204 villages in five Pashtun-dominated provinces of Afghanistan -the heart of the Taliban insurgency. We use endorsement experiments to indirectly elicit truthful answers to sensitive questions about support for different combatants. We demonstrate that civilian attitudes are asymmetric in nature. Harm inflicted by the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) is met with reduced support for ISAF and increased support for the Taliban, but Taliban-inflicted harm does not translate into greater ISAF support. We combine a multistage sampling design with hierarchical modeling to estimate ISAF and Taliban support at the individual, village, and district levels, permitting a more fine-grained analysis of wartime attitudes than previously possible.

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“…While redressing grievances via tangible improvements to lives and livelihoods must be part of any peace process, what we often see is a more cynical exercise driven by short-term expediency. In Iraq some small-scale projects implemented in consultation with local community leaders were achieved (but their sustainability is unknown) while Afghanistan has been characterized by highcost projects often driven by external contractors (including the military) with little if any community engagement (Berman et al 2011 andBeath et al 2011). The results can be meager too: infrastructure rehabilitation but without much (if any) linkage to a transformative development strategy, and vulnerable to conflict's resumption.…”

Section: Health Education and Livelihoodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Needs vs expediency: Poverty reduction and social development in post-conflict countries

Addison¹,

Gisselquist²,

Niño‐Zarazúa³

et al. 2015

WIDER Working Paper

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Conflict depletes all forms of human and social capital, as well as supporting institutions. The scale of the human damage can overwhelm public action, as there are many competing priorities and resources are often insufficient. What then should be the priorities for 'post-conflict' policy? Should it give, for example, higher priority to health or to livelihoods in allocating the resources available (financial, human, and institutional)? Should social protection be the main focus of effort and, if so, what form should it take? If trying to do everything amounts to doing nothing, then what should be the priorities over time, that guide the sequence of actions? This paper explores the issues-the opportunities but also the possible tensionsincluding those around the need to strengthen and sustain peace itself.

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Winning Hearts and Minds through Development: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Afghanistan

Cited by 72 publications

References 42 publications

Comparing and Combining List and Endorsement Experiments: Evidence from Afghanistan

Comparing and Combining List and Endorsement Experiments: Evidence from Afghanistan

Explaining Support for Combatants during Wartime: A Survey Experiment in Afghanistan

Needs vs expediency: Poverty reduction and social development in post-conflict countries

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