Winning the war, but losing the peace? The dilemma of SPLM/A civil administration and the tasks ahead

Abstract

The debate over peace in Sudan has centred on the ongoing talks in Naivasha, Kenya. This paper argues, however, that sustainable peace is not simply a function of the implementation of an agreement between the SPLA and Khartoum, but that other fracture lines will run through post-conflict Sudan. Here we draw attention to the rupture between the Dinka, dominant within the SPLA, and the Equatorian peoples of the far south, hundreds of thousands of whom were driven from their homes or faced with economic and political oppression under SPLA occupation. As these refugees return, it will be through local government structures that Equatorians will or will not be integrated into the SPLA political project for Southern Sudan. Thus, local government figures prominently in the possibility for sustainable peace. We describe the origins and structure of local government in Southern Sudan, situating it in the history of political tension between Dinka and Equatorians. We then describe the challenge of equitably distributing land and foreign aid to returnees in the context of ethnic politics and a massive NGO presence. I N T R O D U C T I O NA number of different informants in Magwi County, South Sudan, related to us the same anecdote. A Madi man returning from Uganda goes to the land he farmed before being displaced, and finds a Dinka living in his house. He demands that the Dinka return his house and land. In response, the Dinka points to a date inscribed above the doorway. 'On this date, I liberated this house from the Arabs', he says. ' Where were you ?'

Decentralisation and conflict in Uganda

“…One of the clear lessons from Uganda is that the decentralization of power to the highest level of local government without an accompanying further decentralization of power to lower levels of local government is a recipe for conflict. This is the same problem in southern Sudan, where the concentration of power in the Government of Southern Sudan has excluded non-Dinka Equatorians and thus led to violent local ethnic conflict (Branch and Mampilly 2005). However, another lesson from ethnically heterogeneous states like Uganda is that this very same decentralization of power to smaller political units can increase local-level conflict by shifting power from ethnically heterogeneous areas to those dominated by only one or two ethnic groups.…”

Improvising border security: ‘A situation of security pluralism’ along South Sudan’s borders with the Democratic Republic of the Congo

“…After the CPA, the SPLM/A formed the interim GoSS. Yet transforming the SPLM/A into a professional army and governing party was and continues to be challenging (Metelits, 2004;Kalpakian, 2008), not least because many citizens of South Sudan hold wartime grievances against the SPLA (Branch and Mampilly, 2005).…”

Institutional Conflict Settlement in Divided Societies: The Role of Subgroup Identities in Self-Government Arrangements

“…Contrary to the minorities in dominated groups and the various factions in fragmented ethnic groups, the subgroups in contested ethnic groups are strong enough to have realistic chances of enhancing their access to political power by leaving the current arrangement and attempting to negoti- (Shinn 2004). A single southern region with a considerable degree of autonomy was established as a result of the agreement (Badal 1994;Branch and Cherian Mampilly 2005;Shinn 2004). While the provisions for self-government effectively ended the North-South violence, they led to increasing intra-southern tensions, most notably between the Dinka and Nuer tribes and between the Equatorians and the Dinka (Badal 1994;Shinn 2004) percent of the population in South Sudan (see Young 2006).…”

“…As he was not able to prevail over his subgroup rivals politically, he allied with Sudan's president Nimerey, who seized the opportunity to foment divisions among the South Sudanese. Nimery dissolved the regional government structures by presidential decree and established three regions, all of which were to be led by Joseph Lagu's allies (Branch and Cherian Mampilly 2005;Shinn 2004). The decree violated the Addis Ababa Agreement and was one of the triggers for the resumption of civil war with the North a few months later (Badal 1994;Branch and Cherian Mampilly 2005).…”