“…Resulting seasonal temperatures can disrupt the lake phenology and linked processes, species dynamics and succession, and nutrient loading and mixing characteristics. For instance, for temperate and arctic North American lakes, winter climate variability has directly or indirectly been shown to affect ice cover phenology and extent (e.g., Bai et al, ; Beyene and Jain, ), water temperatures (e.g., Austin and Colman, ), onset of stratification period (e.g., Winder and Schindler, ), seasonal plankton composition, abundance and succession (e.g., Goldman et al, ; Hampton et al, ), fish population (e.g., Farmer et al, ) and seasonal geo‐chemical dynamics (e.g., Joung et al, ; Powers et al, ). In a changing climate, successful conservation and restoration of lake ecosystems can benefit from climate‐based risk framework presented here, thus affording pinpointed estimates of trends and transitions in lake variables.…”