Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

Abstract

Background: Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives: To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods: In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results: There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476.05¡458.77, mean¡SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q) s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)6(0,1,1) 12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20.942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions: The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

Temporal trends in occupational accidents involving exposure to biological material in Brazil, 2010 to 2016

“…The time-series analysis performed in the present study showed that the incidence of AEBM in health care workers in Brazil followed a stable trend. A similar observation was made in a study conducted in Iran, 20 where a time-series analysis of data for the period of 2000 to 2011 revealed a stable frequency of this type of accident. While other studies have demonstrated a decline in these rates from 1998 to 2008 6 and 1997 to 2009, 15 these studies focused on occupational accidents as a whole rather than AEBM in populations of health care workers.…”

Economic situation and occupational accidents in Poland: 2002–2014 panel data regional study

“…Combined costs of accidents at work and occupational diseases in 2004 amounted to 8.2-9.2 billion PLN (0.93-1.04% of gross national product); these estimates, however, did not account for several costs categories, i.e., indirect costs and transfer payments [4]. Accidents at work are determined by a variety of behavioral, organizational, technical and economic factors [5]. Contemporary research concerning the reasons behind these accidents is conducted from 3 perspectives: business cycle, labor market and structural characteristics including for instance the size of a company or capital use intensity.…”