World historical mapping and potential distribution of Cinchona spp. in Peru as a contribution for its restoration and conservation

Potential Distribution and Identification of Critical Areas for the Preservation and Recovery of Three Species of Cinchona L. (Rubiaceae) in Northeastern Peru

“…This is the first attempt to use the species distribution model (SDM) with the maximum entropy modelling technique to predict and identify areas likely to harbor C. capuli, C. macrocalyx, and C. pubescens in Amazonas [67]. This model has previously been applied at departmental [21], regional [22,68], national, and global levels [20]. In contrast to prior studies on modelling the distribution of the genus [20][21][22]68], this study not only utilized occurrence data from virtual databases, herbarium databases, and floristic inventories, but also included species collected in the field.…”

“…This model has previously been applied at departmental [21], regional [22,68], national, and global levels [20]. In contrast to prior studies on modelling the distribution of the genus [20][21][22]68], this study not only utilized occurrence data from virtual databases, herbarium databases, and floristic inventories, but also included species collected in the field. These species were taxonomically identified using morphological and morphometric characteristics [13][14][15].…”

“…Another reason for the possible distribution potential of the species in this area is the prevalence of cloud forests (montane forests), which are suitable habitats for the genus [11,75]. Contrarily, García et al [20] did not identify Amazonas as a department with a high likelihood of potential distribution areas for Cinchona, and only identifies a high probability of their presence in the southern part of the province of Chachapoyas (district of Leimebamba). The difference in predictions might stem from García et al [20] not incorporating edaphic variables [22], which can significantly influence the model, considering Cinchona species grow in fertile, well-drained soils, mostly with a thick layer of organic matter, a sandy loam texture, and an acidic-to-neutral pH [76,77], often rich in iron, nitrogen, and potassium [78].…”

“…The limitations encountered in this study include the scarcity of available local climatic information, leading us to work with global data obtained from the WorldClim version 2 database (http://www.worldclim.org/ (accessed on 22 June 2023)), as well as the lack of local information on soil variables and the limited presence of records of species in the department. These limitations on the influencing factors could have impacted the model calibration [90]; however, the integration of various environmental variables and real-time data contributed to making our model more accurate compared to previous studies on the genus [20][21][22]. Therefore, it is recommended that future studies continue investigating distribution models of these and other Cinchona species, considering anthropogenic variables, soil variable values from soil analyses, and actual climatic values from the area obtained from meteorological stations, as this will enhance the prediction of potential distribution within the genus [91].…”

“…Research efforts in the Amazonas department have predominantly focused on aspects such as the diversity and taxonomy of the genus [18], as well as its propagation [16,17,19]. Recent studies on Cinchona in Peruvian territory and the Amazonas department have analyzed its distribution as a focus for conservation and restoration [20][21][22]. Despite these efforts, there is a lack of more-detailed investigations on how different species of Cinchona are distributed.…”