Would You Know a Good Decision if You Saw One?

Bratvold, R.B.; Begg, Steve; Campbell, J.M.

doi:10.2523/77509-ms

Cited by 17 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…This step should not be performed prior to framing the problem, including some important soft issues, such as local availability of resources or even experience in IOR/EOR deployment. This sets the correct mental structures that simplify and guide our understanding of a complex reality (Bratvold and Begg, 2002). If screening does not yield feasible IOR/EOR opportunities, it might be necessary to stop the analysis.…”

Section: Decision Analysis Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effective EOR Decision Strategies with Limited Data: Field Cases Demonstration

Manrique

Kamouei

Kitchen

et al. 2008

SPE Symposium on Improved Oil Recovery

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Enhanced-Oil Recovery (EOR) for asset acquisition or rejuvenation involves intertwined decisions. In this sense, EOR operations are tied to a perception of high investments that demand EOR workflows with screening procedures, simulation and detailed economic evaluations. Procedures have been developed over the years to execute EOR evaluation workflows.We propose strategies for EOR evaluation workflows that account for different levels of available information. These procedures have been successfully applied to oil property evaluations and EOR applicability in a variety of oil reservoirs. The methodology relies on conventional and unconventional screening methods, emphasizing identification of analogues to support decision making. The screening phase is combined with analytical or simplified numerical simulations to estimate full-field performance while maintaining rational reservoir segmentation procedures. This paper fully describes the EOR decision-making procedures using field case examples from Asia, Canada, Mexico, South America and the United States. The type of assets evaluated includes a spectrum of reservoir types, from oil sands to light oil reservoirs. Different stages of development and information availability are discussed. Results show the advantage of flexible decision-making frameworks that adapt to the volume and quality of information by formulating the correct decision problem and concentrate on projects and/or properties with apparent economic merit.Our EOR decision-making approaches integrate several evaluation tools, publicly or commercially available, whose combination depends on availability and quality of data. The decision is laid out using decision-analysis tools coupled with economic models and numerical simulation. This allows integrated teams to collaborate in the decision making process without over-analyzing the available data. One interesting aspect is the combination of geologic and engineering data, minimizing experts' bias and combining technical and financial figures of merit rationally. The proposed methodology has proved useful to screen and evaluate projects/properties very rapidly, identifying whether or not upside potential exists.

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Section: Decision Analysis Considerationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effective EOR Decision Strategies with Limited Data: Field Cases Demonstration

Manrique

Kamouei

Kitchen

et al. 2008

SPE Symposium on Improved Oil Recovery

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show abstract

“…Thus an exploration decision regarding the selection of a target is a task that has to consider and reconcile varying individual opinions from a group of geoscientists. Previously, variability or human biases in geoscientific data interpretation has been studied in the topics of: decision analysis for the oil and gas industry (Bratvold et al 2002); and seismic data interpretation for petroleum related studies (Randkey & Mitchell, 2003;Bond 2007). Rankey and Mitchell (2003) conducted experiments on quantitative calculation and qualitative analysis of the impact of interpretation variability and uncertainties on seismic attribute analysis for the prediction of reservoir properties.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Profiling of Aeromagnetic Data Interpretation using the Eye Tracker

Holden

Dentith

McCuaig

et al. 2010

ASEG Extended Abstracts

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“…This conclusion is one reflection on the underperformance of the industry. Searching for ways to improve decision-making in the oil and gas industry is an area that has evolved in response to this concern [2,3]. Within the discipline of cognitive psychology, much work has been carried out in observing how people actually make decisions [4][5][6][7].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Oil and Gas Decision-Making Taxonomy

Mackie

Welsh

Lee

2006

SPE Asia Pacific Oil &Amp; Gas Conference and Exhibition

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TX 75083-3836, U.S.A., fax 01-972-952-9435. AbstractBusiness under-performance in the upstream oil and gas industry, and the failure of many decisions to return expected results, has led to a growing interest over the past few years in understanding the impacts of current decision-making tools and processes and their relationship with decision outcomes. Improving oil and gas decision-making is thus, increasingly, seen as reliant on an understanding of what types of decisions are involved, how they should be made in order to be optimal, and how they actually are made in the "real world".There has been significant work carried out within the discipline of cognitive psychology, observing how people actually make decisions. However, little is known as to whether these general observations apply to decision-making in the upstream oil and gas industry. Nor has there been work on how the results might be used to improve decision-making in the industry. This paper documents the development of a theoretical Oil and Gas Decision Making Taxonomy (OGDMT) that seeks to lay a "level playing field" decision space within which to judge the processes and tools of optimal decision-making as the first step in this research.The OGDMT builds on established ideas in the human decision-making literature, but is itself novel, and involves four different dimensions: level of investigation; task constraint; value function; and the information structure of the environment. It is concluded that decision scenarios at different places in the taxonomy will likely involve different decision-making tools, data and processes for the achievement of optimal decision-making.The results of this work can be applied, for example, to the question of whether decisions about reserves should be made using deterministic or probabilistic tools, data and processes.

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Would You Know a Good Decision if You Saw One?

Cited by 17 publications

References 0 publications

Effective EOR Decision Strategies with Limited Data: Field Cases Demonstration

Effective EOR Decision Strategies with Limited Data: Field Cases Demonstration

Profiling of Aeromagnetic Data Interpretation using the Eye Tracker

An Oil and Gas Decision-Making Taxonomy

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