Zonally asymmetric influences of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

Wang, Wuke; Hong, Jin; Shangguan, Ming; Wang, Hongyue; Jiang, Wei; Zhao, Shuyun

doi:10.5194/acp-22-13695-2022

Cited by 13 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…The QBO at 30 hPa and 50 hPa are important proxies used in the regression model to represent the variability of stratospheric ozone in the tropics as well as at higher latitudes (Anstey and Shepherd, 2014;Lu et al, 2019;Xie et al, 2020;Zhang et al, 345 2021;Wang et al, 2022). Considering the nonlinear effect, the monthly terms of QBO proxies are used for regression analyses.…”

Section: Ozone Variations Associated With Natural Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric ozone trends and attribution over 1984–2020 using ordinary and regularised multivariate regression models

Dhomse

Chipperfield

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Abstract. Accurate quantification of long-term trends in stratospheric ozone can be challenging due to their sensitivity to natural variability, the quality of the observational datasets, non-linear changes in forcing processes as well as the statistical methodologies. Multivariate linear regression (MLR) is the most commonly used tool for ozone trend analysis, however, the complex coupling in most atmospheric processes can make it prone to the over-fitting or multi-collinearity-related issues when using the conventional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) setting. To overcome this issue, we adopt a regularised (Ridge) regression method to estimate ozone trends and quantify the influence of individual processes. Here, we use the Stratospheric Water and OzOne Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) merged data set (v2.7) to derive stratospheric ozone profile trends for the period 1984–2020. Beside SWOOSH, we also analyse a machine-learning-based satellite-corrected gap-free global stratospheric ozone profile dataset from a chemical transport model (ML-TOMCAT), and output from two chemical transport model (TOMCAT) simulations forced with ECMWF reanalyses ERA-Interim and ERA5. With Ridge regression, the stratospheric ozone profile trends from SWOOSH data show smaller declines during 1984–1997 compared to OLS with the largest differences in the lowermost stratosphere (> 4 % per decade at 100 hPa). Upper stratospheric ozone has increased since 1998 with maximum (~2 % per decade near 2 hPa) in local winter for mid-latitudes. Negative trends with large uncertainties are observed in the lower stratosphere with the most pronounced in the tropics. The largest differences in post-1998 trend estimates between OLS and Ridge regression methods appear in the tropical lower stratosphere (with ~7 % per decade difference at 100 hPa). Ozone variations associated with natural processes such as the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), the solar variability, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic oscillation (AO) and the Antarctic oscillation (AAO) also indicate that Ridge regression coefficients are somewhat smaller and less variable compared to the OLS-based estimates. Additionally, ML-TOMCAT based trend estimates are consistent with SWOOSH data set. Finally, we argue that the large differences between the satellite-based data and model simulations confirm that there are still large uncertainties in ozone trend estimates especially in the lower stratosphere, and caution is needed when discussing results if explanatory variables used are correlated.

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Section: Ozone Variations Associated With Natural Processesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stratospheric ozone trends and attribution over 1984–2020 using ordinary and regularised multivariate regression models

Dhomse

Chipperfield

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…The QBO predictor is based on equatorial wind measurements at seven pressure levels. These equatorial oscillations affect ozone beyond the tropics up to polar regions (Wang et al, 2022). However, amplitude, phase, and frequency of the QBO signal may change at higher latitudes (Damadeo et al, 2014).…”

Section: Regression Predictorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Total ozone trends at three northern high-latitude stations

et al. 2023

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Abstract. After the decrease of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) as a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, it is still challenging to detect a recovery in the total column amount of ozone (total ozone) at northern high latitudes. To assess regional total ozone changes in the “ozone-recovery” period (2000–2020) at northern high latitudes, this study investigates trends from ground-based total ozone measurements at three stations in Norway (Oslo, Andøya, and Ny-Ålesund). For this purpose, we combine measurements from Brewer spectrophotometers, ground-based UV filter radiometers (GUVs), and a SAOZ (Système d'Analyse par Observation Zénithale) instrument. The Brewer measurements have been extended to work under cloudy conditions using the global irradiance (GI) technique, which is also presented in this study. We derive trends from the combined ground-based time series with the multiple linear regression model from the Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere (LOTUS) project. We evaluate various predictors in the regression model and found that tropopause pressure and lower-stratospheric temperature contribute most to ozone variability at the three stations. We report significantly positive annual trends at Andøya (0.9±0.7 % per decade) and Ny-Ålesund (1.5±0.1 % per decade) and no significant annual trend at Oslo (0.1±0.5 % per decade) but significantly positive trends in autumn at all stations. Finally we found positive but insignificant trends of around 3 % per decade in March at all three stations, which may be an indication of Arctic springtime ozone recovery. Our results contribute to a better understanding of regional total ozone trends at northern high latitudes, which is essential to assess how Arctic ozone responds to changes in ODSs and to climate change.

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“…Since this time, improved observational techniques, especially the launch of satellites, have allowed researchers to more accurately study ozone at all altitudes across the globe [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. The researchers found a low ozone value region similar to the Antarctic ozone hole in the upper troposphere-lower troposphere (UTLS) region in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, known as the "Ozone Valley".…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Different Types of El Niño Events on the Ozone Valley of the Tibetan Plateau Based on the WACCM4 Mode

Wan,

Xu,

Chang

et al. 2024

Applied Sciences

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This study integrates the sea surface temperature, ozone and meteorological data of ERA5 to count the El Niño events since 1979 and has classified these events into eastern and central types in space as well as spring and summer types in time. The impacts of different types of El Niño events on the ozone valley of the Tibetan Plateau are discussed. The eastern (and spring) type of El Niño events are generally more intense and longer in duration than the central (and summer) type of El Niño events. Overall, in the summer of the following year after El Niño events, the total column ozone (TCO) anomalies near the Tibetan Plateau have a regular zonal distribution. At low latitudes, TCO exhibits negative anomalies, which become more negative approaching the equator. The TCO in the region north of 30° N mainly shows positive anomalies with the high-value region around 40° N. The responses of ozone to different types of El Niño events over the Tibetan Plateau are different, which is further validated by the WACCM4 simulation results. The greater intensity of the eastern (and spring) type of El Niño events caused stronger upward movement of the middle and upper atmosphere in the 20° N region in the subsequent summer as well as a stronger South Asian High. These have resulted in a wider range of negative TCO anomalies in the southern low-latitude region of the South Asian High. In addition, the growing intensity of El Niño extreme events over more than half a century warrants significant concern.

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Zonally asymmetric influences of the quasi-biennial oscillation on stratospheric ozone

Cited by 13 publications

References 51 publications

Stratospheric ozone trends and attribution over 1984–2020 using ordinary and regularised multivariate regression models

Stratospheric ozone trends and attribution over 1984–2020 using ordinary and regularised multivariate regression models

Total ozone trends at three northern high-latitude stations

The Impact of Different Types of El Niño Events on the Ozone Valley of the Tibetan Plateau Based on the WACCM4 Mode

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