Наслідки Повномасштабної Воєнної Агресії Рф Для Української Промисловості

Abstract

The opinions of international organizations, consulting agencies, research centers, domestic and foreign scientists on the impact of war on the economic development of Ukraine are considered. The scale of destruction and loss of the industrial sector as a result of Russian military aggression is assessed in view of its critical role in ensuring Ukraine's defense capability, recovery and growth of its economy. The authors’ approach to assessing the consequences of Russian military aggression for Ukrainian industry, in contrast to existing developments, takes into account sectoral and regional aspects of transformation and offers a basis for substantiating the vectors of Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery aimed at reducing the risks of damage to industrial facilities, ensuring integrity and functionality of domestic industrial complex in the face of prolonged military threats. It is shown that in most regions of the country, an outdated industrial structure has increased the level of security threats to Ukrainian economy in the new generation warfare: hybrid, non-contact, long-range, aimed at targeted destruction of industrial and infrastructural facilities. Post-war reconstruction of industry should be based on territorial and sectoral diversification, innovative development of the military-industrial complex and providing it with scientific basis, formation of a new system of international trade logistics. The economic prospects for Ukraine's recovery are uncertain and will be largely influenced by the ongoing military conflict. At the same time, the country's success in the military confrontation is determined not only by military and financial assistance, but also to a large extent by the stability of its economic foundation – industrial sector. Thus, ensuring the proper functioning of the industry requires both immediate actions to restore production processes by relocation from hazardous areas, establishment of new logistics chains, etc., and formation of strategic goals for reconstruction and identification of sectoral recovery vectors.

Strategic directions of the economic recovery of post-war Ukraine

“…The goal of the medium-term strategy: in the first, so-called "early stage"to achieve the pre-war level of economic development; at the next -stage of post-war recovery -creating a basis for stimulating the revival and gradual development of the country's economic, financial and social potential. The realities of wartime require a change in approaches to state strategizing of socio-economic development and ensuring national security (Deineko et al, 2022). Taking into account the burden of debt dependence of Ukraine, including, due to the objective limitation of paying off external debt, falling into even greater dependence on external creditors, we emphasize that the use of credit is irrational.…”

“…Leading Ukrainian scientists paid attention to the main aspects of the challenges to the Ukrainian economy during the military aggression of the Russian Federation. L. V. Deineko, O. M. Kushnirenko, O. O. Tsyplitska, N. G. Gakhovich analyzed the losses of the industrial sector as a result of Russian military aggression in view of its critically important role in ensuring the defense capability of Ukraine (Deineko et al, 2022); T. O. Ostashko substantiated the ways of partial restoration of agricultural exports in the conditions of military actions and postwar revival of export markets (Ostashko, 2022). O. Kotykova, M. Babych, A. Yagodzinska, G. Tabatskova identified global initiatives to implement the policy of zero hunger (Kotykova et al, 2022).…”

“…According to NBU estimates, losses of physical capital from the destruction of enterprises, housing and infrastructure reached 100 billion USD (this is the equivalent of 50 % of GDP in 2021) (The NBU, 2022). Also, Ukraine, in addition to financial losses, suffered large losses of human capital (migration of citizens abroad due to hostilities, as well as civilian and military deaths); due to the high uncertainty, investment activity has actually been stopped; the total amount of damage that the agricultural industry of Ukraine suffered as a result of the full-scale Russian invasion is 4,29 billion USD (The NBU, 2022); reduction of industrial production volumes by more than half (60-65 %) compared to the same period in 2021, irreversible losses of industrial potential may reach 30 % (Deineko et al, 2022). To restore the economy of Ukraine, to clean it from the consequences of the war, a long period and help from international partners will be needed, the amount of which, according to the estimate of the European Investment Bank, is 1.1 trillion USD (The NBU, 2022).…”

Механізми Реалізації Промислової Політики В Умовах Глобальних Процесів

“…Разом з тим, фахівці НАНУ, до прикладу Хаустова О.В., на основі системного вивчення нормативно-правової бази державної підтримки розвитку промисловості дійшла висновку про відсутність практичних механізмів впровадження задекларованих завдань державної підтримки промислового розвитку [3, с.162]. В умовах воєнної агресії РФ науковий колектив інституту вивчає її наслідки для української промисловості [4]. Науковці НІСД, які здійснюють супровід державної візії стратегії розбудови економіки в умовах глобальних загроз напрацювали науковий доробок, що втілився в монографії, програмні документи, аналітичні доповіді [5].…”

Functioning of the Agricultural Sector in War Conditions

“…Аналіз останніх досліджень і публікацій. Дослідженням проблем функціоування аграрного сектору в умовах війни присвячені праці таких вчених як О. Бородіна [1], Л. Дейнеко, О. Кушніренко, О. Ципліцька, Н. Гахович [2], Т. Осташко [3].…”