Сomputer Modeling Parameters of Technogenic Emergency Situations on Engineering Infrastructure of the Megapolis

Abstract

Context. The urgency of the research is to develop methods for analyzing and processing space-time information, namely the set of data distributed both in space and time and creating on this basis a computer probabilistic model of the process of predicting manmade emergencies on city engineering infrastructure. The spatio-temporal nature of data series causes additional requirements for the identification procedures of the mathematical model of a series, therefore, the number of approaches identifying its structure and construction of a series model has been proposed.
 Objective is methodical and software implementation of a computer model of the space-time series being intended to predict the future values of locations and times of man-made emergencies on the engineering infrastructure of the metropolis and increase decision-making efficiency.
 Method. A projection approach providing independent determination of random spatial parameters defining location of emergency units on engineering infrastructure as a sequence of two one-dimensional uniform distributions and describing time distribution of moments of accidents as non-stationary Poisson distribution has been developed. Proposed is an integrated approach which includes the construction of generator points, the power of which (characteristic of the accident complexity) based on the implementation of the comparative statics approach with so-called cumulative effect within a certain time. A relaxation approach based on the reduction of a two-dimensional simulation model of determining the city of possible emergency location to a set of independent onedimensional non-stationary (including stationary) distributions to generate the time of occurrence has been constructed. Formalization of the space-time field, procedures of information support of the process of forecasting the parameters of a possible emergency, typification of initial data for numerical experiments on the implementation of methods for forecasting the parameters of a possible emergency on the example of water supply and sewerage network of utility company Kharkivvodokal, city Kharkiv have been developed.
 Results. A dual methodology to determine the simulation model parameters of the space-time series, which contains both projection and integral approaches, as well as a combined method − relaxation approach, have been proposed. Numerical experiments based on the constructed model were performed. The model being considered is the theoretical basis to construct the forecast using a large amount of historical data.
 Conclusions. The method to predict the parameters of space-time series considering the nonstationarity property of the time component distribution has been further developed. Using the proposed computer simulation tools allows to increase the accuracy of the forecast of the location, time of occurrence and severity of a possible accident on the engineering infrastructure of the metropolis.