Background: Several clinical scales have been developed for predicting stroke recurrence. These clinical scores could be extremely useful to guide triage decisions. Our goal was to compare the very early predictive accuracy of the most relevant clinical scores [age, blood pressure, clinical features and duration of symptoms (ABCD) score, ABCD and diabetes (ABCD2) score, ABCD and brain infarction on imaging score, ABCD2 and brain infarction on imaging score, ABCD and prior TIA within 1 week of the index event (ABCD3) score, California Risk Score, Essen Stroke Risk Score and Stroke Prognosis Instrument II] in consecutive transient ischemic attack (TIA) patients. Methods: Between April 2008 and December 2009, we included 1,255 consecutive TIA patients from 30 Spanish stroke centers (PROMAPA study). A neurologist treated all patients within the first 48 h after symptom onset. The duration and typology of clinical symptoms, vascular risk factors and etiological work-ups were prospectively recorded in a case report form in order to calculate established prognostic scores. We determined the early short-term risk of stroke (at 7 and 90 days). To evaluate the performance of each model, we calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Cox proportional hazards multivariate analyses determining independent predictors of stroke recurrence using the different components of all clinical scores were calculated. Results: We calculated clinical scales for 1,137 patients (90.6%). Seven-day and 90-day stroke risks were 2.6 and 3.8%, respectively. Large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA) was observed in 190 patients (16.7%). We could confirm the predictive value of the ABCD3 score for stroke recurrence at the 7-day follow-up [0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54–0.77] and 90-day follow-up (0.61, 95% CI 0.52–0.70), which improved when we added vascular imaging information and derived ABCD3V scores by assigning 2 points for at least 50% symptomatic stenosis on carotid or intracranial imaging (0.69, 95% CI 0.57–0.81, and 0.63, 95% CI 0.51–0.69, respectively). When we evaluated each component of all clinical scores using Cox regression analyses, we observed that prior TIA and LAA were independent predictors of stroke recurrence at the 7-day follow-up [hazard ratio (HR) 3.97, 95% CI 1.91–8.26, p < 0.001, and HR 3.11, 95% CI 1.47–6.58, p = 0.003, respectively] and 90-day follow-up (HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.28–4.31, p = 0.006, and HR 2.20, 95% CI 1.15–4.21, p = 0.018, respectively). Conclusion: All published scores that do not take into account vascular imaging or prior TIA when identifying stroke risk after TIA failed to predict risk when applied by neurologists. Clinical scores were not able to replace extensive emergent diagnostic evaluations such as vascular imaging, and they should take into account unstable patients with recent prior transient episodes.

According to our results, multiple TIAs within 7 days are associated with a greater subsequent risk of stroke than after a single TIA. Nevertheless, we found no independent predictor of stroke recurrence among these patients.

The inclusion of vascular and neuroimaging information to clinical scales (ABCD3-I score) provides important prognostic information and also helps management decisions, although it cannot give a complete distinction between high-risk and low-risk groups.

The highest risk of subsequent stroke after a TIA occurs within the first week after the index event. However, the risk of stroke recurrence (SR) remains high during the first year of follow-up. We studied the temporal pattern and predictors of SR (at 7 days and from 7 days to 1-year follow-up). Between April 2008 and December 2009, we included 1,255 consecutive TIA patients from 30 Spanish stroke centers (PROMAPA study). We determined the short-term (at 7 days) and long-term (from 8 days to 1 year) risk of SR. Patients who underwent short-term recurrence and long-term recurrence were compared with regard to clinical findings, vascular territories, and etiology. Enough information (clinical variables and extracranial vascular imaging) was assessed in 1,137 (90.6 %) patients. The 7-day stroke risk was 2.6 %. 32 (3.0 %) patients had an SR after 7-day follow-up. Multiple TIA (HR 3.50, 1.67-7.35, p = 0.001) and large artery atherosclerosis (HR 2.51, 1.17-5.37, p = 0.018) were independent predictors of early SR, whereas previous stroke (HR 1.40, 1.03-1.92, p = 0.034) and coronary heart disease (2.65, 1.28-5.50, p = 0.009) were independent predictors of late SR. Notoriously, 80 % of SR happened in the same territory of the index TIA at 7-day follow-up, whereas only 38 % during the long-term follow-up (p < 0.001). Different predictors of SR were identified throughout the follow-up period. Moreover, the ischemic mechanism differed in early and late stroke recurrences.

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