No abstract

The study of Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) and Predictability is the interdisciplinary endeavor to characterize, understand, attribute, simulate, and predict the slow, multiyear variations of climate at global (e.g., the recent slowdown of global mean temperature rise in the early 2000s) and regional (e.g., decadal modulation of hurricane activity in the Atlantic, ongoing drought in California or in the Sahel in the 1970s–80s, etc.) scales. This study remains very challenging despite decades of research, extensive progress in climate system modeling, and improvements in the availability and coverage of a wide variety of observations. Considerable obstacles in applying this knowledge to actual predictions remain. This short article is a succint review paper about DCV and predictability. Based on listed issues and priorities, it also proposes a unifying theme referred to as “drivers of teleconnectivity” as a backbone to address and structure the core DCV research challenge. This framework goes beyond a preoccupation with changes in the global mean temperature and directly addresses the regional impacts of external (natural and anthropogenic) climate forcing and internal climate interactions; it thus explicitly deals with the societal needs for region-specific climate information. Such a framework also enables the integration of efforts in a large international research community toward advancing the observation, characterization, understanding, and prediction of DCV. Recommendations to make progress are provided as part of the contribution of the CLIVAR “DCVP Research Focus” group.

Instability waves in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are analysed by microwave satellite-based data spanning from 1998 to 2001. This is the first multi-year observational study of the sea surface temperature (SST) signature of the Tropical Instability Waves (TIW) in the region. SST data were used to show that the waves spectral characteristics vary from yearto-year. They also vary on each latitude north of the equator, with the region of 1 • N, 15 • W concentrating the largest variability when the time series is averaged along the years. Analyses of wind components show that meridional winds are more affected near the equator and 1 • N, while zonal winds are more affected further north at around 3 • N and 4 • N. Concurrent observations of SST, wind, atmospheric water vapour, liquid cloud water, precipitation rates and wind were used to suggest the possible influence of these waves on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). It seems that these instabilities have a large impact on the ITCZ due to its proximity of the equator, compared to its Pacific counterpart, and the geography of the tropical Atlantic basin. These analyses also suggest that the air-sea coupling mechanism suggested by Wallace et al. (1989) can also be applied to the tropical Atlantic region.

Abstract. Instability waves in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are analysed by microwave satellite-based data spanning from 1998 to 2001. This is the first multi-year observational study of the sea surface temperature (SST) signature of the Tropical Instability Waves (TIW) in the region. SST data were used to show that the waves spectral characteristics vary from yearto-year. They also vary on each latitude north of the equator, with the region of 1 • N, 15 • W concentrating the largest variability when the time series is averaged along the years. Analyses of wind components show that meridional winds are more affected near the equator and 1 • N, while zonal winds are more affected further north at around 3 • N and 4 • N. Concurrent observations of SST, wind, atmospheric water vapour, liquid cloud water, precipitation rates and wind were used to suggest the possible influence of these waves on the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). It seems that these instabilities have a large impact on the ITCZ due to its proximity of the equator, compared to its Pacific counterpart, and the geography of the tropical Atlantic basin. These analyses also suggest that the air-sea coupling mechanism suggested by Wallace et al. (1989) can also be applied to the tropical Atlantic region.