Abstract. To this day, the prediction of space weather effects near the Earth suffers from a fundamental problem: The radial propagation speed of "halo" CMEs (i.e. CMEs pointed along the Sun-Earth-line that are known to be the main drivers of space weather disturbances) towards the Earth cannot be measured directly because of the unfavorable geometry. From inspecting many limb CMEs observed by the LASCO coronagraphs on SOHO we found that there is usually a good correlation between the radial speed and the lateral expansion speed V exp of CME clouds. This latter quantity can also be determined for earthward-pointed halo CMEs. Thus, V exp may serve as a proxy for the otherwise inaccessible radial speed of halo CMEs. We studied this connection using data from both ends: solar data and interplanetary data obtained near the Earth, for a period from January 1997 to 15 April 2001. The data were primarily provided by the LASCO coronagraphs, plus additional information from the EIT instrument on SOHO. Solar wind data from the plasma instruments on the SOHO, ACE and Wind spacecraft were used to identify the arrivals of ICME signatures. Here, we use "ICME" as a generic term for all CME effects in interplanetary space, thus comprising not only ejecta themselves but also shocks as well. Among 181 front side or limb full or partial halo CMEs recorded by LASCO, on the one hand, and 187 ICME events registered near the Earth, on the other hand, we found 91 cases where CMEs were uniquely associated with ICME signatures in front of the Earth. Eighty ICMEs were associated with a shock, and for 75 of them both the halo expansion speed V exp and the travel time T tr of the shock could be determined. The function T tr =203-20.77* ln (V exp ) fits the data best. This empirical formula can be used for predicting further ICME arrivals, with a 95% error margin of about one day. Note, though, that in 15% of comparable cases, a full or partial halo CME does not cause any ICME signature at Earth at all; every fourth partial halo CME and every sixth limb halo CME does not hit the Earth (false Correspondence to: R. Schwenn (schwenn@linmpi.mpg.de) alarms). Furthermore, every fifth transient shock or ICME or isolated geomagnetic storm is not caused by an identifiable partial or full halo CME on the front side (missing alarms).
We present a review on the interplanetary causes of intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ −100 nT), that occurred during solar cycle 23 (1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005). It was reported that the most common interplanetary structures leading to the development of intense storms were: magnetic clouds, sheath fields, sheath fields followed by a magnetic cloud and corotating interaction regions at the leading fronts of high speed streams. However, the relative importance of each of those driving structures has been shown to vary with the solar cycle phase. Superintense storms (Dst ≤ −250 nT) have been also studied in more detail for solar cycle 23, confirming initial studies done about their main interplanetary causes. The storms are associated with magnetic clouds and sheath fields following interplanetary shocks, although they frequently involve consecutive and complex ICME structures. Concerning extreme storms (Dst ≤ −400 nT), due to the poor statistics of their occurrence during the space era, only some indications about their main interplanetary causes are known. For the most extreme events, we review the Carrington event and also discuss the distribution of historical and space era extreme events in the context of the sunspot and Gleissberg solar activity cycles, highlighting a discussion about the eventual occurrence of more Carringtontype storms.
We present the first multi-viewpoint coronal mass ejection (CME) catalog. The events are identified visually in simultaneous total brightness observations from the twin SECCHI/COR2 coronagraphs onboard the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory mission. The Multi-View CME Catalog differs from past catalogs in three key aspects: (1) all events between the two viewpoints are cross-linked, (2) each event is assigned a physics-motivated morphological classification (e.g., jet, wave, andflux rope), and (3) kinematic and geometric information is extracted semi-automatically via a supervised image segmentation algorithm. The database extends from the beginning of the COR2 synoptic program (2007 March) to the end of dual-viewpoint observations (2014 September). It contains 4473 unique events with 3358 events identified in both COR2s. Kinematic properties exist currently for 1747 events (26% of COR2-A events and 17% of COR2-B events). We examine several issues, made possible by this cross-linked CME database, including the role of projection on the perceived morphology of events, the missing CME rate, the existence of cool material in CMEs, the solar cycle dependence on CME rate, speeds and width, and the existence of flux rope within CMEs. We discuss the implications for past singleviewpoint studies and for Space Weather research. The database is publicly available on the web including all available measurements. We hope that it will become a useful resource for the community.
Abstract. For the sets of magnetic clo•ds studied in this workwe have shown the existence of a relationship between their peak magnetic field strength and peak velocity values, with a clear tendency that, clouds which move at, higher speeds also possess higher core magnetic field strengths. This result suggests a possible intrinsic property of magnetic clouds and also implies a geophysical consequence. The relatively low field strengths at low velocities is pres•mably the cause of the lack of intense storms during low speed e. jecta. There is also an indication that, this type of behavior is peculiar for magnetic clouds, whereas other types of non cloud-driver gas events do not, seem to show a similar relationship, at least, for the data studied in this paper. We suggest that, a field/speed relationship for magnetic clouds, as that obtained in our present study, could be associated with the cloud release and acceleration mechanism a.t the sun.Since for magnetic clouds the total field tyically has a substantial southward component, B•, our results in,ply that the interplanetary dawn-dusk electric field, given by v x Bs (where v is the cloud's velocity), is enhanced by both factors. Therefore, the consequent magnetospheric energization (that is governed by this electric field) becomes more efficient for the occurrence of magnetic storms.
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