Abstract:The separated and combined effects of land-cover scenarios and future climate on the provision of hydrological services were evaluated in Vez watershed, northern Portugal. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was calibrated against daily discharge, sediments and nitrates, with good agreements between model predictions and field observations. Four hypothetical land-cover scenarios were applied under current climate conditions (eucalyptus/pine, oak, agriculture/vine and low vegetation). A statistical downscaling of four General Circulation Models, bias-corrected with ground observations, was carried out for 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, using representative concentration pathway 4.5 scenario. Also, the combined effects of future climate conditions were evaluated under eucalyptus/pine and agriculture/vine scenario. Results for land cover revealed that eucalyptus/pine scenario reduced by 7% the annual water quantity and up to 17% in the summer period. Although climate change has only a modest effect on the reduction of the total annual discharge (À7%), the effect on the water levels during summer was more pronounced, between À15% and À38%. This study shows that climate change can affect the provision of hydrological services by reducing dry season flows and by increasing flood risks during the wet months. Regarding the combined effects, future climate may reduce the low flows, which can be aggravated with eucalyptus/pine scenario. In turn, peak flows and soil erosion can be offset. Future climate may increase soil erosion and nitrate concentration, which can be aggravated with agriculture scenario. Results moreover emphasize the need to consider both climate and land-cover impacts in adaptation and land management options at the watershed scale.

We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.

Cell therapies for intervertebral disc (IVD) regeneration presently rely on transplantation of IVD cells or stem cells directly to the lesion site. Still, the harsh IVD environment, with low irrigation and high mechanical stress, challenges cell administration and survival. In this study, we addressed systemic transplantation of allogeneic bone marrow mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) intravenously into a rat IVD lesion model, exploring tissue regeneration via cell signaling to the lesion site. MSC transplantation was performed 24 hours after injury, in parallel with dermal fibroblasts as a control; 2 weeks after transplantation, animals were killed. Disc height index and histological grading score indicated less degeneration for the MSC‐transplanted group, with no significant changes in extracellular matrix composition. Remarkably, MSC transplantation resulted in local downregulation of the hypoxia responsive GLUT‐1 and in significantly less herniation, with higher amounts of Pax5+ B lymphocytes and no alterations in CD68+ macrophages within the hernia. The systemic immune response was analyzed in the blood, draining lymph nodes, and spleen by flow cytometry and in the plasma by cytokine array. Results suggest an immunoregulatory effect in the MSC‐transplanted animals compared with control groups, with an increase in MHC class II+ and CD4+ cells, and also upregulation of the cytokines IL‐2, IL‐4, IL‐6, and IL‐10, and downregulation of the cytokines IL‐13 and TNF‐α. Overall, our results indicate a beneficial effect of systemically transplanted MSCs on in situ IVD regeneration and highlight the complex interplay between stromal cells and cells of the immune system in achieving successful tissue regeneration. Stem Cells Translational Medicine 2017;6:1029–1039

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