The paper considers the issue of implementing the Silk Road Economic Belt and especially the China-Mongolia-Russia transport corridor and its influence on the development of the Irkutsk Region and Mongolia as intracontinental peripheries. According to customs statistics, the Irkutsk Region mostly exports aluminum to the well-developed countries of the West and mineral fuel, timber, and cellulose to the East (China, Japan, and South Korea), and after increasing the throughput of railways, it will strengthen its export-resource dependence subject to the current trends. Mongolia has the same problems because the Mongolian economy has limited diversification and is strongly dependent on the extracting industry. Routes of the China-Mongolia-Russia economic belt fit the objects of the promising project “New Angarstroy” that makes the Irkutsk Region a full-fledged member of this concept. The convergence of the commodity markets of Siberia and Mongolia resulted from the shortened economic distance makes it possible to develop efficient end-use production facilities up to the creation of cross-border Russian-Mongolian territorial production complexes. On the other hand, distances are not so critical circumstances for building an innovative economy. However, the main problems of regional development within the framework of the initiative lie in the institutional and political field, i.e. the mechanisms of financing suggested in the concept of the Silk Road Economic Belt are not efficiently used in the territories of Siberia and Mongolia.
На примере медной промышленности рассмотрена проблема конкурентоспособности монгольских и российских (восточносибирских) минерально-сырьевых товаров на внешних рынках. Дан анализ конъюнктуры мирового рынка меди и места на нем Китая, России и Монголии. Представлена сравнительная характеристика разрабатываемых и подготавливаемых к освоению крупных месторождений меди Монголии (Эрдэнэтийн овоо и Оюу-Толгой) и Восточной Сибири России (Быстринское, Удоканское, Ак-Сугское, Кингашское). Обосновано предположение о возможности обострения соперничества между экспортерами медной продукции Монголии и России за внешние рынки сбыта, прежде всего китайский. Проведена оценка транспортно-географического положения месторождений относительно ближайших китайских промышленных центров и морских экспортных портов, показавшая преимущества месторождений Монголии по сравнению с восточносибирскими. С помощью SWOT-анализа подтверждено, что углубление переработки сырья обеспечивает более благоприятные условия выхода медной продукции Восточной Сибири на внешние рынки, в том числе ослабляет риски конкуренции с Монголией.
The article analyses eight most relevant conceptions of the development and positioning of Siberia: the diversification of oil and gas flows, the Asian Super Ring, the Trans-Siberian project RAZVITIE,the strategy of the socio-economic development of Siberia, the conception of intracontinental development, the Northern Hoop, the environmental conception and that of space compression. The proposed conceptions have been classified into five main groups. A methodology for assessing the geopolitical position of regions has been tested using Siberia as an example. Changes in the parameters of the geopolitical position due to the implementation of these conceptions have been assessed. Using algebraic logic, the author identifi and analysed conditions for improving the geopolitical position of Siberia. All conceptions have been compared and analysed using a point scale. Industrial and commodity direction combined with the development of transport corridors should be given priority. Separate implementation of export-oriented and transport strategies is less effective and the development of tourism and the compression of oikoumene may worsen the geopolitical position of Siberian regions.
The dynamics of Mongolia’s foreign trade over the past three decades and its leading role in the country’s economic growth are revealed. In the context of a narrow specialization in the mining industry, the growth of the Mongolian economy is strongly dependent on the export of mineral raw materials, which overwhelmingly dominate in the structure of total exports. The overwhelming majority of these cargoes go to China, whose share in Mongolia’s foreign trade turnover is growing steadily since the early 1990s, while the same one of Russia is falling. The role of Siberia and the Far East in cooperation with Mongolia sharply decreased. It has been established that the values of Mongolian exports of fluorspar, molybdenum and copper ores and concentrates exceed Russian ones, and Mongolian export of zinc and tungsten ores and concentrates, iron ore and coal are not so significantly inferior. Comparison of the prospects for increasing exports of Mongolia’s key foreign trade goods – coal and copper concentrate – with the corresponding capabilities of the eastern regions of Russia indicates an aggravation in the near future of competition between Mongolian and Russian mineral commodities for foreign markets, primarily for the Chinese. Considering this, Russia loses to Mongolia due to a much longer and, accordingly, costly output of mineral raw materials to foreign markets. Measures are proposed to reduce the risks of competition between Mongolian and Russian mineral commodities on foreign markets and to intensify their trade and economic cooperation, that includes the following: the restoration of traditional foreign trade relations, the creation of international transport corridors and the construction of new railway lines, an increase in the depth of processing of mineral raw materials, the implementation of joint large-scale projects.
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