Моделирование динамики популяций охотничьих животных в Ленинградской области: формирование и верификация модели, прогноз развития популяции РЕЗЮМЕ В статье рассматриваются процессы формирования и верификации модифицированной матричной модели динамики популяций охотничьих животных в Ленинградской области, а также расчета прогнозных показателей динамики популяций и добычи лося и кабана в Ленинградской области до 2026 года. При верификации модели по лосю получены незначительные отклонения (от 1,8 до 6,7% по абсолютной величине) результатов решения модифицированной матричной модели от фактических ретроспективных данных, а по модели популяции кабана отклонения составили от 0,7 до 7,3%, что свидетельствуют об адекватности и точности отражения динамики популяции лося и кабана в Ленинградской области при модельных экспериментах.

It is necessary to predict the number of hunting animals under the conditions of the impact of endogenous and exogenous factors the habitat and economic use, for rational and inexhaustible their use. Understanding changes in the number of hunting animals is an important tool for managing hunting resources. Predicting of the number of hunting animals in the region as a…rule, is based on trend models of population dynamics. In practice, the calculation and constructive method and the method of mathematical modeling have become the most widespread in predicting the population of hunting animals in dynamics. The computational and constructive method is based on the use of correlation and regression models, but it does not take into account the main indicators of population size formation: the fertility rate, which is formed on the basis of the specic weight of males, the percentage of yeldness and the number of calves (young animals) in the calving (litter), and the livability depending on the percentage of natural death and losses from poaching. The method of mathematical modeling involves the compilation of mathematical models and conducting model experiments to predict the number of species of hunting animals in dynamics. The relevance of this mathematical analysis lies in its multifactorial nature and rather high reliability. In the eld of predicting the number of hunting animals the modied P. H.…Leslie model is of particular interest. The purpose of the work was to predict the number of wild ungulates (roe deer, elk, maral and spotted deer) in the Zavidovo State Complex in the Tver region until 2035. The use of the modied P. H.…Leslie model makes it possible to predict the development of hunting animal populations both in the Zavidovo State Complex as a…whole and in individual hunting areas with precise adjustment of models according to area parameters.

Relevance. This article deals with the study of history of the unique craniological collection of the Museum of Animal Husbandry named after Academician E.F. Liskun and a review of the current state of craniological research in animal husbandry.Methods. The classical method of measuring the craniological material of Academician E.F. Liskun, his contribution to the formation and development of domestic craniological science is considered. The possibility of applying the craniological research methodology, as well as ways of its use in other sciences are under discussion. Of particular interest are the studies of skulls of extinct cattle breeds preserved in the museum›s collection. The experimental part of the work is based on the collection of the Liskun Museum of Animal Husbandry. The skulls of cattle breeds from the museumʼs craniological collection are examined: «Algau» breed, «Velikorussky Great Russian» breed, «Krasnaya Tambovskaya Red Tambov», «Revelskaya» breed, local «Saratov» varieties. Checks of measurements of skulls were carried out by using the tools as a caliper, a measuring tape and a ruler.Results. The studies of historical museum exhibits (skulls) allow us to obtain new data on the evolution of domestic genetic structure («allelo-fund») of cattle breeds, which makes it possible to compare it with modern populations. The obtained data will be used in the development of breed conservation programs, as well as in breeding, as local cattle breeds are the source of genetic variability that has a rapid response to the needs of agricultural production. The obtained data allow more sophisticated studies of evolutionary processes.

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