No abstract

Volcanic eruptions provide tests of human and natural system sensitivity to abrupt shocks because their repeated occurrence allows the identification of systematic relationships in the presence of random variability. Here we show a suppression of Nile summer flooding via the radiative and dynamical impacts of explosive volcanism on the African monsoon, using climate model output, ice-core-based volcanic forcing data, Nilometer measurements, and ancient Egyptian writings. We then examine the response of Ptolemaic Egypt (305–30 BCE), one of the best-documented ancient superpowers, to volcanically induced Nile suppression. Eruptions are associated with revolt onset against elite rule, and the cessation of Ptolemaic state warfare with their great rival, the Seleukid Empire. Eruptions are also followed by socioeconomic stress with increased hereditary land sales, and the issuance of priestly decrees to reinforce elite authority. Ptolemaic vulnerability to volcanic eruptions offers a caution for all monsoon-dependent agricultural regions, presently including 70% of world population.

Disclosures of conflicts of interest at drug advisory committee meetings are common, often of considerable monetary value, and rarely result in recusal of advisory committee members. A weak relationship between certain types of conflicts and voting behaviors was detected, but excluding advisory committee members and voting consultants with conflicts would not have altered the overall vote outcome at any meeting studied.

The vast majority of variability in the instrumental surface temperature record is at annual frequencies. Systematic changes in the yearly Fourier component of surface temperature have been observed since the midtwentieth century, including a shift toward earlier seasonal transitions over land. Here it is shown that the variability in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature in the northern extratropics is related to Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation as represented by the northern annular mode (NAM) and the Pacific-North America mode (PNA). The phase of the seasonal cycle is most strongly influenced by changes in spring atmospheric circulation, whereas amplitude is most strongly influenced by winter circulation. A statistical model is developed based on the NAM and PNA values in these seasons and it successfully predicts the interdecadal trends in the seasonal cycle using parameters diagnosed only at interannual time scales. In particular, 70% of the observed amplitude trends and 68% of the observed phase trends are predicted over land, and the residual trends are consistent with internal variability. The strong relationship between atmospheric circulation and the structure of the seasonal cycle indicates that physical explanations for changes in atmospheric circulation also extend to explaining changes in the structure of the seasonal cycle.