Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt

Manning, J. G.; Ludlow, Francis; Stine, A.; Boos, William R.; Sigl, Michael; Marlon, Jennifer R.

doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00957-y

Cited by 110 publications

(102 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…We find a robust decrease in tropical precipitation in the summer of 1783, specifically over the Sahel region of Africa, as a result of the southward shift of the ITCZ from the asymmetric cooling of the NH. This is consistent with reports of low Nile River flow, drought and famine in Egypt after the Laki eruption, and the results are in agreement with similar modeling studies (Colose et al, ; Manning et al, ; Oman, Robock, Stenchikov, & Thordarson, ). Precipitation anomalies are less homogeneous, exhibiting significant wetting in the south, and drying in the north.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Modeling the 1783–1784 Laki Eruption in Iceland: 2. Climate Impacts

et al. 2019

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The Laki eruption in Iceland, which began in June 1783, was followed by many of the typical climate responses to volcanic eruptions: suppressed precipitation and drought, crop failure, and surface cooling. In contrast to the observed cooling in 1784–1786, the summer of 1783 was anomalously warm in Western Europe, with July temperatures reaching more than 3 K above the mean. However, the winter of 1783–1784 in Europe was as cold as 3 K below the mean. While climate models generally reproduce the surface cooling and decreased rainfall associated with volcanic eruptions, model studies have failed to reproduce the extreme warming in western Europe that followed the Laki eruption. As a result of the inability to reproduce the anomalous warming, the question remains as to whether this phenomenon was a response to the eruption or merely an example of internal climate variability. Using the Community Earth System Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, we investigate the “Laki haze” and its effect on Northern Hemisphere climate in the 12 months following the eruption onset. We find that the warm summer of 1783 was a result of atmospheric blocking over Northern Europe, which in our model cannot be attributed to the eruption. In addition, the extremely cold winter of 1783–1784 was aided by an increased likelihood of an El Niño after the eruption. Understanding the causes of these anomalies is important not only for historical purposes but also for understanding and predicting possible climate responses to future high‐latitude volcanic eruptions.

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Section: Summary and Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Modeling the 1783–1784 Laki Eruption in Iceland: 2. Climate Impacts

et al. 2019

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“…Bonneau lists for the years 239 CE–250 CE six normal or even good years. As Manning et al () have noted, for the years for which we lack any evidence, we should assume normal rather than below average floods, since it is generally adverse floods that find mention in the sources. Just one year, 242 CE, is recorded with a possibly below‐average Nile flood.…”

Section: The “Crisis” Of the Third Century And The Cyprianic Plague Rmentioning

confidence: 72%

Plagues, climate change, and the end of an empire. A response to Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome (2): Plagues and a crisis of empire

et al. 2018

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This is the second of a three‐section review of Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome in which we examine in detail Harper's treatment of two allegedly widespread and mortal Roman outbreaks of disease. In the case of the second‐century Antonine plague, we demonstrate that Harper overlooked a major controversy and instead portrayed an oversimplified narrative of a catastrophic event. In the case of the third‐century Cyprianic plague, we call attention to several glaring methodological issues in Harper's treatment of the episode, point out the absence of corresponding evidence in the papyri, and cast doubt on the linkage previously drawn between the plague and archaeology.

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“…While long term impacts of Northern Hemispheric volcanic eruptions on Saharan aridity are under‐researched, we observe increases in the average occurrence of pSDEs within the 10 years after the eight largest NH eruptions in the Common Era from Sigl et al (; Figure S6). Specifically, the increase of pSDE events following the Eldgja (939/940; Oppenheimer et al, ) and Laki (1783/1784; Thordarson & Self, ) events (pSDE, Figure ; SDE, Figure ), respectively, coincide with reduced Nile River flow due to decreased regional precipitation (Manning et al, ; Oman et al, ). High peaks in Nile River discharge (stronger monsoon intensity) occur during minima in Saharan dust flux records from Western Africa on a multimillennial timescale over the past 240 ka (Skonieczny et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…High peaks in Nile River discharge (stronger monsoon intensity) occur during minima in Saharan dust flux records from Western Africa on a multimillennial timescale over the past 240 ka (Skonieczny et al, 2019). Research by Manning et al (2017) also reveals a decrease in precipitation across the Sahel resulting from a weakened ITCZ due to 20th century eruptions based on CMIP5 modeling results. Additionally, significant correlations result for comparisons of NH Volcanic Forcing (Sigl et al, 2015) with the SDE record for 1780-2000 (Table S4; Figure S4) and the pSDE record for 800-1800 CE (Table S5) suggesting a possible association between NH volcanic forcing and northward Saharan dust transport on multidecadal scales.…”

Section: While Long Term Impacts Of Northern Hemispheric Volcanic Erumentioning

confidence: 96%

A 2000 Year Saharan Dust Event Proxy Record from an Ice Core in the European Alps

et al. 2019

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Dust events originating from the Saharan desert have far‐reaching environmental impacts, but the causal mechanism of magnitude and occurrence of Saharan dust events (SDEs) during the preinstrumental era requires further research, particularly as a potential analog for future climate. Using an ultrahigh resolution glacio‐chemical record from the 2013 Colle Gnifetti ice core drilled in the Swiss‐Italian Alps, we reconstructed a 2000‐year‐long summer Saharan dust record. We analyzed both modern (1780–2006) and premodern Common Era (CE) major and trace element records to determine air mass source regions to the Colle Gnifetti glacier and assess similarities to modern and reconstructed climate trends in the Northern Hemisphere. This new proxy SDE reconstruction, produced using measurements from a novel, continuous ultrahigh‐resolution (120‐μm) ice core analysis method (laser ablation‐inductively coupled plasma‐mass spectrometer) is comprised of 316,000 data points per element covering the period 1–1820 CE. We found that the Colle Gnifetti ice core captures an anomalous increase in Saharan dust transport during the onset of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (870–1000 CE) and records other prominent shorter events (CE, 140–170, 370–450, 1320–1370, and 1910–2000), offering a framework for new insights into the implications of Saharan dust variability.

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Volcanic suppression of Nile summer flooding triggers revolt and constrains interstate conflict in ancient Egypt

Cited by 110 publications

References 51 publications

Modeling the 1783–1784 Laki Eruption in Iceland: 2. Climate Impacts

Modeling the 1783–1784 Laki Eruption in Iceland: 2. Climate Impacts

Plagues, climate change, and the end of an empire. A response to Kyle Harper's The Fate of Rome (2): Plagues and a crisis of empire

A 2000 Year Saharan Dust Event Proxy Record from an Ice Core in the European Alps

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