Livestock grazing is an important management tool of agri-environment schemes initiated within the European Union to maintain and restore biodiversity of grassland birds. However, grazing can affect bird populations negatively by depressing reproduction through nest trampling and increasing nest predation. These effects are, however, considered low when using recommended stocking rates. By simulating wader nests, we experimentally quantify and examine the causes of variation in trampling rates on managed Baltic coastal meadows. Secondly, we examine whether livestock presence increases nest predation of one management target, the critically endangered southern dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii). Trampling rates of experimental nests were high. Only 21% of nests would have survived a three week incubating period early in the grazing season. Trampling rates were most severe at the onset of grazing and decreased with time. Thus, timing of grazing plays a crucial role in determining breeding success on managed meadows. Predation rates of dunlin nests were moderate and did not depend on livestock presence suggesting that incubating dunlin are not disturbed by cattle. While grazing is vital in habitat restoration and in conserving grassland biodiversity, our results suggest that grazing may also threaten the viability of populations if negative effects are underestimated. Therefore, management plans, especially for endangered species, should not only rely on general recommendations on stocking rates but instead planners need to evaluate the significance of negative effects in terms of local conditions (timing of breeding and grazing, space use of cattle and birds, measured trampling rates) and adjust grazing practises accordingly.

The effect of habitat management is commonly evaluated by measuring population growth, which does not distinguish changes in reproductive success from changes in survival or the effects of immigration or emigration. Management has rarely been evaluated considering complete life cycle of the target organisms, including also possible negative impacts from management. We evaluated the effectiveness of cattle grazing in the restoration of coastal meadows as a breeding habitat for small and medium‐sized ground‐nesting birds by examining the size and demography of a southern dunlin (Calidris alpina schinzii) breeding population. Using a stochastic renesting model that includes within‐season variation in breeding parameters, we evaluated the effect of grazing time and stocking rates on reproduction. The census data indicated that the population was stable when nest trampling was prevented, but detailed demographic models showed that the population on managed meadows was a sink that persisted by attracting immigrants. Even small reductions in reproductive success caused by trampling were detrimental to long‐term viability. We suggest that the best management strategy is to postpone grazing to after the 19th of June, which is about three weeks later than what is optimal from the farmer's point of view. The differing results from the two evaluation approaches warn against planning and evaluating management only based on census population size and highlight the need to consider target‐specific life history characteristics and demography. Even though grazing management is crucial for creating and maintaining suitable habitats, we found that it was insufficient in maintaining a viable population without additional measures that increase nest success. In the presently studied case and in populations with similar breeding cycles, impacts from nest trampling can be avoided by starting grazing when about 70% of the breeding season has past.

In some animal populations, immigrants have lower survival than philopatric individuals. Costs of dispersal or low phenotypic quality of dispersers may explain the pattern. However, apparent adult survival estimates, which describe real survival combined with site fi delity cannot be separated from permanent emigration. Th us, heterogeneity in breeding dispersal propensities of immigrants and philopatrics can bias fi tness correlates of dispersal. Diff erences in breeding dispersal propensities may be caused by diff erent strategies in response to environmental cues inducing dispersal, such as reproductive success. In such cases, the reported diff erences between immigrants and philopatric individuals may not refl ect true variation in survival.We studied whether dispersal status specifi c apparent adult survival is associated with reproductive success in a Temminck ' s stint Calidris temminckii population. We analysed two long term capture-recapture datasets characterised by low and high nest predation levels. Philopatric individuals had higher apparent adult survival than immigrants in both datasets and the diff erence was highlighted during the high nest predation period. By contrasting return rates between successful and unsuccessful breeders as a proxy for dispersal, we found that unsuccessful immigrants breeding for the fi rst time dispersed more likely than successful immigrants, but such a pattern was not found among philopatric individuals. Our results support the hypothesis that immigrant and philopatric individuals have diff erent breeding dispersal strategies following reproductive failure and that their apparent adult survival diff erences are at least partly explained by diff erent breeding dispersal propensities. Our results also suggest that the recent decline of the study population refl ects a multiple response to increased nest predation through decreased local recruitment and increased emigration.

Due to different costs and benefits associated with dispersal and philopatry, life history traits of immigrants and philopatric individuals may differ. Despite of the apparent effects, dispersal status is only rarely considered in analyses of population dynamics. We analysed whether dispersal status explains variation in life history traits of an endangered Temminck's stint Calidris temminckii population breeding at the Baltic Sea. We also estimated the impact of immigration and dispersal status on the population growth rate (λ) with a population matrix model, in which immigrants and philopatric individuals are separated to their own stages. We found that philopatric individuals had a higher apparent survival than immigrants in both sexes. In reproductive parameters, variation due to dispersal status was not clear. Nests incubated by philopatric individuals survived better than those of immigrants, but this did not translate in hatchling production per breeding attempt. Models described a sink population in which the inclusion of both immigration rate to the population and the dispersal status of individuals into the model increased estimates of λ. When the better success of philopatric individuals was considered, the population growth appeared more stable (λ=0.972). If this was not taken into account, λ implied a strong decline (λ=0.911). The results support the hypothesis that immigrants exhibit lower components of lifetime reproductive success and therefore contribute less to population growth and the gene pool than local recruits. While we cannot distinguish whether this difference reflects higher mortality or permanent emigration, the latter explanation seems more plausible. Our results highlight the importance of considering immigration and dispersal status in population modelling. In the case of the endangered study population, the results implied that management options directed to improve local recruitment would be a profitable option.

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