Aim To identify the relative importance of commonly available site and species factors on the probability of extirpating a plant species at the site scale.Location Australia.Methods We reviewed the plant eradication literature and listed the factors commonly cited as influencing eradication success. We then analysed a database of 408 site-scale extirpation attempts, across 17 species eradication programmes, by modelling the time until extirpation to determine the relative influence of these factors on the probability of extirpation, given time. ResultsThe most commonly cited factors influencing eradication success can be classified into two groups as follows: those related to the 'organisation', being typically binary variables and amenable to management; and those related to the 'site/species', which typically were continuous values and usually beyond the control of the management agency. Detectability period, search distance, monitoring rate, infestation size, propagule longevity, time to reproductive maturity and previous eradication success all influenced the extirpation rate. Conversely, climate suitability, land use and general accessibility (distance to nearest manager) were relatively unimportant. By relating the influential site/ species factors to a time-dependent model, managers and policymakers can explicitly estimate the probability of successful extirpation at a site, given a particular time horizon. These estimates can then be aggregated up to the species scale to allow managers to set realistic goals regarding eradication time frames and resource requirements.Main conclusions Our paper illustrates how the probability of extirpation at the site scale can be quantitatively estimated and how these estimates can be used to inform decisions regarding broader species-scale eradication programmes. We expect that the use of such quantitative approaches to select better eradication targets will improve eradication success rates over time.

An incursion of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in a previously FMD-free country can cause significant economic damage from immediate and prolonged closure of FMD-sensitive markets. Whilst emergency vaccination may help contain disease, the presence of vaccinated animals complicates post-outbreak management and the recovery of FMD-free status for return to trade. We present enhancements to the Australian Animal DISease (AADIS) model that allow comparisons of post-outbreak management strategies for vaccinated animals, for the purposes of securing the earliest possible return to trade. Two case studies are provided that compare the retention of vaccinated animals with removal for waste/salvage, and the impact on recovery of FMD-sensitive markets per OIE guidelines. It was found that a vaccinate-and-retain strategy was associated with lower post-outbreak management costs, however this advantage was outweighed by significantly higher trade losses. Under the assumptions of the study there was no cost advantage to salvaging the removed vaccinated animals.

Aim To identify the temporal patterns of plant naturalization in Australia, particularly the interaction between taxonomy, geographic origin and economic use.Methods From Australia's Virtual Herbarium, we compiled a database of information for the entire naturalized flora of Australia. We then examined the database in discrete time intervals to determine the changes in patterns of naturalized species taxonomy, geographic origin and economic use over time.Results Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we found no evidence to indicate that the rate of alien flora naturalization is increasing in Australia. The number of naturalized species has grown linearly during the period 1880-2000, with the underlying rate of new species detected per thousand specimens declining over the same time period. Despite this, the diversity of both species taxonomy and geographic origin has increased over the last 120 years, leading to increased rates of growth in the total phylogenetic diversity of the Australian flora.Main Conclusions By classifying species according to their likely origin and economic use, we are able to infer the circumstances driving the patterns of naturalization. In particular, we identify how the contribution of individual pathways has changed since European settlement corresponding with the socioeconomic development of the continent. Our study illustrates how the changing nature of 'high-risk' pathways is relevant to directing interventions such as biosecurity regulation.

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helped us understand the nuances of both AVH and APC. Jane Elith provided advice regarding point process models. This research was supported by a Victorian Life Sciences Computation Initiative (VLSCI) grant [VR0284] on its Peak Computing Facility at the University of Melbourne, an initiative of the Victorian Government, Australia. This research was also supported by an Australian Research Council (ARC) Future Fellowship to M.M. and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions.