The arid coasts of North Africa, extending over 4633 km from the Gulf of Tunis to the Nile Delta, are undergoing pronounced shoreline retreats and coastal floodings that are reported as a consequence of the ongoing sea level rise resulting from global warming. Of particular interest are the abnormal shoreline dynamics for deltaic and sandy beaches, which are severely impacted by abrupt decadal variabilities in both climatic and anthropogenic drivers resulting in their increased vulnerability to disturbances from coastal hazards. Unfortunately, the evolution, distribution and impacts of these drivers remain largely unquantified, let alone understood, for these extensive arid coasts that harbor the major portion of North Africa’s population as well as unique and fragile marine ecosystems. To address this deficiency, we use GIS-based multi-criteria approaches combined with analytic hierarchy process to map the Coastal Vulnerability Index and the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index along these coasts to investigate the amplitude and extent of shoreline deterioration resulting from sudden fluctuations in sediment transport to the coastline. We use the western bay of the Gulf of Tunis, the coasts of Tripoli and the Nile Delta as three validation sites for our vulnerability assessment. The statistical Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Index map reveals that 47% of arid North African coasts are characterized by high to very high vulnerability. In particular, we observe that the densely populated deltaic coasts in both Tunisia and Egypt are 70% more vulnerable than any others coast in the eastern Mediterranean Basin. These abnormally high-vulnerability extensive areas are also correlated with significant deterioration of coastal aquifers and hence in crop production, compromising local food security and resulting in increasing outflow migration trends. Both Tunisia and Egypt observed dramatic increases in the net population outflow migration by respectively 62% and 248% between 2000 and 2016, mostly from coastal areas. Our source analysis of the amplitude and extent of these high coastal vulnerabilities suggests that they result from the anthropogenic drivers of damming and rapid urban growth over the last few decades rather than the effects of global warming.

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The aim of this study is the reconstitution of the recent morpho-sedimentary evolution of the Medjerda River delta. We examine the spatio-temporal evolution of the Medjerda shoreline between 1936 and 2016 using satellite images, complemented by sedimentological and geochemical analyses and 210 Pbex and 137 Cs radiometric data. The general tendency of the shoreline evolution shows an increasing progradation (300 ± 12 m) between 1936 and 2016. Yet the mesoscale Net Shoreline Movement position (NSM) and the End Point Rate (EPR) reveal an erosion pattern estimated to be À20 m ± 0.15 m/yr during the period 1988e1999. The sedimentological analyses reveal four main lithostratigraphic units. The fine sand substratum layer (Md ¼ 0.08 mm) decreases toward clay and silt facies (Md < 0.063 mm), rich in continental plant debris. The geochemical results reveal gradual incoming of the terrigenous component instead of marine deposits. The 137 Cs/ 210 Pbex radiometric dating confirms the functioning of the new river flow by the 1950s with the highest sedimentation rate being 3.3 cm/yr. Our results show that the Sidi-Salem dam impoundment (1981) led to a dramatic reduction of sediment discharge, a decrease of the grain size with nearly no more sand reaching the coast, and the shoreline retreat.

Abstract. The aim of this study consists in testing the effectiveness of satellite data in order to monitoring shoreline and sedimentary features changes, especially the rapidly changing of Gulf of Tunis coast. The study area is located in the Gulf of Tunis western bay (Southern Mediterranean Sea) which is characterized by sandy beaches of Ghar Melah and Raoued (Medjerda Delta area). The aerial photographs and satellite imageries were used for mapping the evolution of shoreline. Diachronic data (satellite imagery, aerial photography and topographic maps) were used to monitor and to quantify, the evolution of the coastal areas. These thematic data were digitally overlaid and vectorised for highlighting the shoreline changes between 1936 and 2016, in order to map the rate of erosion and accretion along the shoreline. Results show that the accretion and degradation are related to the Medjerda: change of outlet in 1973 and impoundment of the Sidi Salem dam in 1982. We found that the general trend of the coastal geomorphic processes can be monitored with satellite imageries (such as Sentinel A2, Spots 4 and 5), due to its repetitive coverage along the time and their high quality concerning the spectral contrast between land and sea areas. Improved satellite imageries with high resolution should be a valuable tool for complementing traditional methods for mapping and assessing the sedimentary structures (such as shoreline, delta, marine bars), and monitoring especially the lowlands coastal areas (slightly eroded).