US National Institutes of Health Intramural Research Program, Sanaria.

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Background The extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure and transmission in Mali and the surrounding region is not well understood. We aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in three communities, and understand factors associated with infection. Methods Between July 2020 and January 2021, we collected blood samples and demographic, social, medical, and self-reported symptoms information from residents aged 6 months and older over two study visits. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured using a highly specific two-antigen ELISA optimized for use in Mali. We calculated cumulative adjusted seroprevalence for each community and evaluated factors associated with serostatus at each visit by univariate and multivariate analysis. Results Overall, 94.8% (2533/2672) of participants completed both study visits. A total of 31.3% (837/2672) were aged <10 years, 27.6% (737/2672) were aged 10-17 years, and 41.1% (1098/2572) were aged ≥18 years. The cumulative SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate was 58.5% (95% CI: 47.5 to 69.4). This varied between sites and was 73.4% in the urban community of Sotuba, 53.2% in the rural town of Bancoumana, and 37.1% in the rural village of Donéguébougou. Study site and increased age were associated with serostatus at both study visits. There was minimal difference in reported symptoms based on serostatus. Conclusion The true extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Mali is greater than previously reported and may now approach hypothetical ‘herd immunity’ in urban areas. The epidemiology of the pandemic in the region may be primarily subclinical and within background illness rates.

Background The extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure and transmission in Mali and the surrounding region is not well understood, although infection has been confirmed in nearly 14,000 symptomatic individuals and their contacts since the first case in March 2020. We aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in three Malian communities, and understand factors associated with infection. Methods Between 27 July 2020 and 29 January 2021, we collected blood samples along with demographic, social, medical and self-reported symptoms information from residents aged 6 months and older in three study communities at two study visits. SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were measured using a highly specific two-antigen ELISA optimized for use in Mali. We calculated cumulative adjusted seroprevalence for each site and evaluated factors associated with serostatus at each visit by univariate and multivariate analysis. Findings Overall, 94.8% (2533/2672) of participants completed both study visits. A total of 50.3% (1343/2672) of participants were male, and 31.3% (837/2672) were aged <10 years, 27.6% (737/2672) were aged 10-17 years, and 41.1% (1098/2572) were aged >/=18 years. The cumulative SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate was 58.5% (95% CI: 47.5 to 69.4). This varied between sites and was 73.4% (95% CI: 59.2 to 87.5) in the urban community of Sotuba, 53.2% (95% CI: 42.8 to 63.6) in the rural town of Bancoumana, and 37.1% (95% CI: 29.6 to 44.5) in the rural village of Doneguebougou. This equates to an infection rate of approximately 1% of the population every three days in the study communities between visits. Increased age and study site were associated with serostatus at both study visits. There was minimal difference in reported symptoms based on serostatus. Interpretation The true extent of SARS-CoV-2 exposure in Mali is greater than previously reported and now approaches hypothetical herd immunity in urban areas. The epidemiology of the pandemic in the region may be primarily subclinical and within background illness rates. In this setting, ongoing surveillance and augmentation of diagnostics to characterize locally circulating variants will be critical to implement effective mitigation strategies like vaccines. Funding This project was funded by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering, and National Cancer Institute.

Background In malaria endemic countries, seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions are performed during the high malaria transmission in accordance with epidemiological surveillance data. In this study we propose a predictive approach for tailoring the timing and number of cycles of SMC in all health districts of Mali based on sub-national epidemiological surveillance and rainfall data. Our primary objective was to select the best of two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season at the operational scale. Our secondary objective was to evaluate the number of malaria cases, hospitalisations and deaths in children under 5 years of age that would be prevented annually and the additional cost that would be incurred using the best approach. Methods For each of the 75 health districts of Mali over the study period (2014–2019), we determined (1) the onset of the rainy season period based on weekly rainfall data; (ii) the onset and duration of the high transmission season using change point analysis of weekly incidence data; and (iii) the lag between the onset of the rainy season and the onset of the high transmission. Two approaches for predicting the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 were evaluated. Results In the study period (2014–2019), the onset of the rainy season ranged from week (W) 17 (W17; April) to W34 (August). The onset of the high transmission season ranged from W25 (June) to W40 (September). The lag between these two events ranged from 5 to 12 weeks. The duration of the high transmission season ranged from 3 to 6 months. The best of the two approaches predicted the onset of the high transmission season in 2019 to be in June in two districts, in July in 46 districts, in August in 21 districts and in September in six districts. Using our proposed approach would prevent 43,819 cases, 1943 hospitalisations and 70 deaths in children under 5 years of age annually for a minimal additional cost. Our analysis shows that the number of cycles of SMC should be changed in 36 health districts. Conclusion Adapting the timing of SMC interventions using our proposed approach could improve the prevention of malaria cases and decrease hospitalisations and deaths. Future studies should be conducted to validate this approach. Graphical Abstract