Background Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease may lead to interventions that impact the epidemic. Methods Healthy, M. tuberculosis infected South African adolescents were followed for 2 years; blood was collected every 6 months. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA-Sequencing data by comparing participants who ultimately developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex qRT-PCR, the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. The latter participants were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease. Findings Of 6,363 adolescents screened, 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66·1% (95% confidence interval, 63·2–68·9) and a specificity of 80·6% (79·2–82·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0·018 for RNA-Seq and p=0·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values <0·0001 by qRT-PCR) with a sensitivity of 53·7% (42·6–64·3) and a specificity of 82·8% (76·7–86) in 12 months preceding tuberculosis. Interpretation The whole blood tuberculosis risk signature prospectively identified persons at risk of developing active tuberculosis, opening the possibility for targeted intervention to prevent the disease. Funding Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, Aeras, the European Union and the South African Medical Research Council (detail at end of text).

Vaccines to protect against tuberculosis (TB) are urgently needed. We performed a case–control analysis to identify immune correlates of TB disease risk in Bacille Calmette–Guerin (BCG) immunized infants from the MVA85A efficacy trial. Among 53 TB case infants and 205 matched controls, the frequency of activated HLA-DR+ CD4+ T cells associates with increased TB disease risk (OR=1.828, 95% CI=1.25–2.68, P=0.002, FDR=0.04, conditional logistic regression). In an independent study of Mycobacterium tuberculosis-infected adolescents, activated HLA-DR+ CD4+ T cells also associate with increased TB disease risk (OR=1.387, 95% CI=1.068–1.801, P=0.014, conditional logistic regression). In infants, BCG-specific T cells secreting IFN-γ associate with reduced risk of TB (OR=0.502, 95% CI=0.29–0.86, P=0.013, FDR=0.14). The causes and impact of T-cell activation on disease risk should be considered when designing and testing TB vaccine candidates for these populations.

Continual human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) evolution and expansion within the human population have led to unequal distribution of HIV-1 group M subtypes. In particular, recent outgrowth of subtype C in southern Africa, India, and China has fueled speculation that subtype C isolates may be more fit in vivo. In this study, nine subtype B and six subtype C HIV-1 isolates were added to peripheral blood mononuclear cell cultures for a complete pairwise competition experiment. All subtype C HIV-1 isolates were less fit than subtype B isolates (P < 0.0001), but intrasubtype variations in HIV-1 fitness were not significant. Increased fitness of subtype B over subtype C was also observed in primary CD4؉ T cells and macrophages from different human donors but not in skin-derived human Langerhans cells. Detailed analysis of the retroviral life cycle during several B and C virus competitions indicated that the efficiency of host cell entry may have a significant impact on relative fitness. Furthermore, phyletic analyses of fitness differences suggested that, for a recombined subtype B/C HIV-1 isolate, higher fitness mapped to the subtype B env gene rather than the subtype C gag and pol genes. These results suggest that subtype B and C HIV-1 may be transmitted with equal efficiency (Langerhans cell data) but that subtype C isolates may be less fit following initial infection (T-cell and macrophage data) and may lead to slower disease progression.