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Developing members at the WTO face a shrinkage in policy space for supporting their agricultural sector due to the limited room available under the provisions of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA). Contrastingly, most developed members can provide high levels of product-specific support without breaching their commitments on account of their support entitlements. For some of these members, the so-called ‘Blue Box’ under the AoA, plays a pivotal role in expanding the policy space with respect to domestic support to agricultural products. Though a lot of scholarship has discussed and examined other support provisions under the AoA, the ‘Blue Box’ remains relatively shrouded in mystery. Testimony to this is the fact that although the Blue Box has found use amongst developed members, no developing member, except for China in 2016, has ever used the Blue Box to support their producers. Given the impasse in the Doha Round of negotiations and limited flexibilities available under the AoA, this paper examines the feasibility and compatibility Blue Box measures with developing members’ socio-economic situation. Findings of this paper bring to fore the variations in member practice and the operational flexibilities available in implementing Blue Box programmes to support agriculture. JEL: F13, F14, F17, Q17

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This study identifies and rationalises some of India’s issues and concerns with the signing of the RCEP. By analysing the existing trade balance, import surge trends, dumping and agricultural sensitivities, among other factors, the study justifies India’s decision to remain outside of this mega-FTA. Further, it predicts the impact of tariff elimination under RCEP on various macroeconomic variables of the RCEP member countries by using the GTAP model under two scenarios: (i) India does not join the RCEP and (ii) India joins the RCEP. Results show that India’s GDP would be adversely affected if it joins this agreement, and its overall trade deficit may further deteriorate after joining the RCEP. In terms of the bilateral trade balance, India’s trade deficit with ASEAN and China will grow steeply if it joins the agreement. The study also finds that an RCEP without India may lose its shine as the GDP of most of the other members of the RCEP would be negatively impacted by India’s decision to stay out. JEL Codes: F13, F15, F17, F61, O53

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