The ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement (FTA) has brought opportunities as well as challenges to the Indian industry since it came into force on 1 January 2010. There is no clear-cut estimates about the gains which will come to India especially in the sectors of agriculture, plantation and fisheries. However, some of the sectors which are labour intensive or unorganized will be facing bigger challenges.This article attempts to examine the impact of FTA where the tariff is either reduced or eliminated on some of the agricultural products like fisheries, tea and coffee, which have been projected as sensitive for India. The commitment of India and ASEAN under the FTA is analyzed along with the trade and tariff data. While doing so the article looks at some of the empirical evidence to examine the impact of India's unilateral tariff liberalization in the Post-Uruguay Round by taking into consideration India's imports, domestic production, etc. These results are then extrapolated to examine the impact of tariff liberalization on the domestic economy in view of India's commitment in the ASEAN-India FTA.The study is divided into three parts. The first part deals with the history of India-ASEAN relationship and highlights the features of India-ASEAN FTA. The second part does a case study of fisheries, tea and coffee with regard to FTA and likely impact on India. The final part gives a broad conclusion of the study.The study first looks at the bilateral trade data and then highlights the salient features of India-ASEAN FTA. It then reviews some of the literary works that
CommentaryForeign Trade Review 48(4) 481-497
The plethora of Regional Trade Agreements, especially in Asia, has created a complex web of noodle bowl, which has made trade more difficult. Many countries of Asia are now trying to be part of mega-free trade agreements (FTAs). While Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is consolidating through ASEAN+1 initiative leading to Regional Cooperation and Economic Partnership (RCEP), no such effort has been initiated so far by the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). This study thus examines the possible effects of regional integration between ASEAN and SAARC on various sectors, as well as on macro-economic and trade areas by using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model and database. A scenario of a complete integration between ASEAN and SAARC is simulated using the GTAP model, where the tariffs between ASEAN and SAARC are eliminated on all items but maintained for other trading partners. This article suggests for, among others, consolidation of ASEAN and SAARC FTAs, which will have a greater welfare enhancement, though some sectors will require adjustments due to their sensitivities. The article recommends for a policy dialogue between ASEAN and SAARC as such a process can only be initiated through a political engagement. It also recommends that the developing countries shall eliminate their tariffs in 5 years and allow longer time frame for the LDCs.
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