Apartment projects are developed based on a set of assumptions; therefore they have to face risks and uncertainties. One of the most important risks is the uncertainty of the market. The economic condition that causes market slow-down in Indonesia recently has led to some certain of stagnation of apartment development, of which impacts remain for years. In such condition, it is necessary to understand how to measure risks before making a decision. The objective of this paper is to assess risk in apartment project under market uncertainty, using quantitative tools selected from the theory associated with the investment decision. The parameters are market risks and operating risks. Market risk is subdivided into capital market risk(CMr), valuation risk (Vr) and market growth rate risk (MGRr), while real estate operating risk is subdivided into operating risk (Or), development risk (Dr), leasing risk (Lr), leasehold risk (LHr) and leverage risk (LVr). The riskiness values are categorized into three classes: conservative, moderate and aggressive. A leased apartment development project in Wonokromo, Surabaya was selected as a case study. The project covered 8,773 square meters of land and consisted of one tower with total 31,829 square meters gross floor area, equipped with parking lots and amenities. The study found out that The CMr was 36%, Vr was 13 %, MGRr was 50%, Or was 112%, Dr was 47%, Lr was 215%, LHr was 61% and LVr was 156%. Although the overall project risk values lie in conservative category, since the level of leasing risk is in aggresive range, more comprehensive investigation should be carried out during a decision-making to reduce the negative impact of risks.
Large-scale development of residential projects, including condominiums, is growing rapidly in developing countries. Despite their contribution to economic growth, the condominium also causes adverse environmental impacts. To address the problems, a sustainable construction paradigm has been introduced. Even though sustainable construction has been widely discussed, most studies focused on social and environmental aspects with little consideration for the economic objective of the business. This study aimed to develop a model to achieve three dimensions of sustainable construction for condominium projects. To identify the influencing factors and the interrelationships, a literature review was carried out and followed by a qualitative survey of 25 condominium projects in Surabaya, Indonesia. The variables consisted of resource consumption, waste, regulation, lean construction methods, sustainable materials, organizational capabilities, health and safety performance, resource efficiency, and life cycle cost. For data analysis purposes, a system dynamics approach was applied. The simulations reveal that the current practices are insufficient to achieve sustainable construction. To formulate sustainability policies, scenarios including the implementation of Modular Construction, tax incentives policy and a policy mix were employed. The results indicate that the scenarios could enhance sustainability in condominium projects. It can be concluded that the model can be used as a tool to improve sustainable construction for condominium projects in developing countries.
Stakeholder is a very important factor for project success. As part of external and the most influential project stakeholder, investor as a market agent, with embedded needs, preferences and behavior might become critical project risks and should be identified and managed properly as a key project objective. This paper investigates previous studies to examine and to understand the mechanisms of investor's economic behavior as the risk factor and its impact for the development of residential project. Traditional financial theory in the past decades generally emphasizes the rational model in investor's decision-making without involving emotional aspect of behavior. Recently there are many scientists proposed the theory of behavioral finance which combines insight from psychology and sociology into finance and investment with the market fundamental perspective. Based on the review, we conclude that behavioral finance can be considered as an alternative concept in assessing residential project risk especially in economic volatility.
Introduction: Despite its contribution to urban development, high rise residential projects also cause adverse impact on the living environment. To address the problem, a sustainable construction as a new paradigm has been introduced. Various papers have examined the importance of sustainable construction. However, most studies focused on social and environmental aspects and with few consideration on the economic objective of the business. This study aimed to fill the research gap by presenting a dynamic model to improve social, environmental and economic performance of sustainable construction for high rise residential projects in developing countries. Methods: This study started with a literature review as a basis for a qualitative survey conducted in thirty high rise residential projects in Indonesia, to identify the influencing factors and the interrelationships. To analysis the data, a system dynamics approach was utilized. Results: The simulations reveal that the current regulation and construction practices are insufficient to reduce environmental negative impacts. In order to formulate better policies, three scenarios comprised the implementation of building energy regulation, tax incentives policy, and a policy mix were employed. The results show that the scenarios could improve construction sustainability performance in some extends. Conclusion: The combination of building regulation and tax incentives policy is effective to achieve environmental and social as well as economic aspects of sustainable construction which is suitable for investors. Based on the results, it is concluded that the model can be used to formulate various policies in the future to enhance sustainable construction of high rise residential projects in developing countries.
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