Over the last twenty years, the open source community has provided more and more software on which the world's High Performance Computing (HPC) systems depend for performance and productivity. The community has invested millions of dollars and years of effort to build key components. But although the investments in these separate software elements have been tremendously valuable, a great deal of productivity has also been lost because of the lack of planning, coordination, and key integration of technologies necessary to make them work together smoothly and efficiently, both within individual PetaScale systems and between different systems. It seems clear that this completely uncoordinated development model will not provide the software needed to support the unprecedented parallelism required for peta/exascale computation on millions of cores, or the flexibility required to exploit new hardware models and features, such as transactional memory, speculative execution, and GPUs. This report describes the work of the community to prepare for the challenges of exascale computing, ultimately combing their efforts in a coordinated International Exascale Software Project.

In this work we present a predictive analytical model that encompasses the performance and scaling characteristics of an important ASCI application. SAGE (SAIC's Adaptive Grid Eulerian hydrocode) is a multidimensional hydrodynamics code with adaptive mesh refinement. The model is validated against measurements on several systems including ASCI Blue Mountain, ASCI White, and a Compaq Alphaserver ES45 system showing high accuracy. It is parametric -basic machine performance numbers (latency, MFLOPS rate, bandwidth) and application characteristics (problem size, decomposition method, etc.) serve as input. The model is applied to add insight into the performance of current systems, to reveal bottlenecks, and to illustrate where tuning efforts can be effective. We also use the model to predict performance on future systems.

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