In semi-arid regions, where hydrological resources are very vulnerable and where there are water shortages in many regions of the world, it is of great importance to assess the vulnerability that a system is facing or will face to the potential impacts of climatic changes and changes on the use of land. For that reason, this research focuses on evaluating the global vulnerability of a hydrological basin, taking into consideration these changes. Being different from the existing methodologies that assess the vulnerability, our methodology interconnects through a new interface a distributed hydrological model, global climate models, climate change scenarios, land use change scenarios and the largest number of system variables calculated with information from official sources. Another important point of our methodology is that it quantifies the global vulnerability of the system, taking into consideration hydrological, environmental, economic and social vulnerabilities. The results obtained show that the proposed methodology may provide a new approach to analyze vulnerability in semi-arid regions. Moreover, it made it possible to diagnose and establish that the greatest current and future vulnerabilities of the system are the result of activities in agricultural areas and urban centers.

There is great uncertainty about the future effects of climate change on the global economic, social, environmental, and water sectors. This paper focuses on watershed vulnerabilities to climate change by coupling a distributed hydrological model with artificial neural networks and spatially distributed indicators for the use of a predictive model of such vulnerability. The analyses are complemented by a Monte Carlo evaluation of the uncertainty associated with the projections of the global circulation models, including how such uncertainty impacts the vulnerability forecast. To test the proposal, the paper uses current and future vulnerabilities of the Turbio River watershed, located in the semi-arid zone of Guanajuato (Mexico). The results show that nearly 50% of the watershed currently has medium and high vulnerabilities, and only the natural areas in the watershed show low vulnerabilities. In the future, an increase from medium to high vulnerability is expected to occur in urban and agricultural areas of the basin, with an associated uncertainty of ±15 mm in the projected precipitation.