The United Nations (UN) has organized various meetings since 1987 and proposed the land management and land administration models as a component of sustainable development to protect natural and environmental resources and improve the quality of life in the world [1-2]. In this context, cadaster has new and important responsibilities and evolves to land administration defined as an implementation tool of land management policies [3]. As part of a sustainable development paradigm, urban growth is required to be kept under control according to the understanding of land management. In other words, land management requires estimating how the land cover will change [3]

Uncontrolled urban growth is one of the most prominent problems in modern urbanism and planning. Rapid urbanization and population growth cause changes in land cover. In addition, determining the effects of these changes is essential in terms of sustainable urban management policies. Urban growth is a complex, dynamic structure that initiates changes in land cover. For this reason, simulation models are used extensively in planning studies. In this study, land cover simulation of the Sancaktepe district in Istanbul was carried out with the SLEUTH model based on cellular automata (CA). The study aims to identify the damage caused by uncontrolled urbanization. In this context, a scenario was created based on the assumption that forests will be protected based on the changes in land cover that occurred between 1961-2014. The data used in the model were generated from cadastral maps on a parcel basis. For this purpose, four-period data sets (1961-1992-2001-2014) were prepared between 1961-2014. According to the simulation results, 82% of agricultural land, 2% of forest land and 84% of open land will probably be converted into residential use. According to the results, it has been determined that almost all of the open and agricultural land in the towns of Pasakoy and Samandira in the district of Sancaktepe have been converted into residential areas. According to the prediction that the changes in current land cover will continue, no change is expected in forests, while it has been determined that the potential to transform agricultural land and open land into settlement areas is quite high.

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> It is necessary to keep urban growth under control according to the understanding of sustainable urban management in rapidly growing cities. In other words, sustainable urban management requires estimating how the land cover will change and in which direction the urbanization will be in the coming years, as well as knowing the current structures of the cities. Therefore, simulation models are frequently used for monitoring urban growth. The results of simulation models help to obtain background information that will be the basis for the formation of a “sustainable urban life” by allowing the determination of the natural areas that can face the threat of urbanization. The cadastral structure is one of the basic variables affecting the growth of a city. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to investigate urban growth by producing cadastral parcel-based simulation models. The land cover data required to create a simulation model were generated from cadastral maps and land registry data, in four different time periods. Within the scope of the study, cellular automata-based urban growth simulation models for the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 were produced, and the land cover changes that occurred in Sancaktepe were investigated.</p>

Sürdürülebilir kent yönetimi anlayışına göre, kentsel dokudaki değişim yönünün ve hızının kontrol altına alınması gerekmektedir. Uygulanabilir plan kararların alınmasında da kentsel büyüme simülasyon modelleri önemli bir altlığı oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada simülasyon için kullanılacak SLEUTH yazılımı ile simülasyon modeli oluşturulması üç aşamada tamamlanmaktadır; test, kalibrasyon ve kestirim. Kalibrasyon aşamasında kentsel büyüme simülasyon modeli için en uygun büyüme katsayısı değerlerinin hesaplanması amaçlanmıştır. SLEUTH en uygun katsayı değerlerini, hesaplanan 13 adet ölçüte göre Brute Force Calibration (BFC) yöntemini kullanarak belirlemektedir. Ölçütlerden hangisinin veya hangilerinin katsayı belirlemede kullanılacağı konusunda henüz bir fikir birliği yoktur. Literatürde sıklıkla karşılaşılan OSM ve Lee-Sallee yöntemleri bu çalışmada da kullanılmıştır. Bunun haricinde, üçüncü yöntem olarak da en yüksek regresyon değerine sahip olan ölçütlere göre kalibrasyon işlemi yapılmıştır. Hesaplanan katsayılar incelendiğinde Pop-Size-Rad ölçütlerinin kullanıldığı kalibrasyon yöntemi ile oluşturulan modelin çalışma alanının kentleşme karakteri ile daha çok benzeştiği belirlenmiştir.

Changes in land cover driven by urban sprawl increase the threat of urbanization of forests and agricultural lands. Therefore, monitoring urban sprawl by creating simulation models is frequently carried out to understand sustainable city management. Cellular automata‐based models are mostly preferred to reduce the damage led by urban sprawl, and the SLEUTH model is the most well known. Several methods have been developed for the SLEUTH model calibration step, such as optimum SLEUTH metrics and total exploratory factor analysis (T‐EFA), to improve the model accuracy. This study aims to create a high‐accuracy urban growth simulation model using low‐resolution data, investigate the T‐EFA method's success in the calibration step, and find the urban sprawl effects on land cover change. Istanbul was selected as our study area due to witnessing its tremendous urban sprawl since the 1950s. According to our results, the urban growth that occurred between 2000 and 2018 could be defined more closely to reality using the T‐EFA method, and Istanbul will continue to grow until 2040, with approximately 428.7 km2 of agricultural lands, 553.4 km2 of forests, and 0.1 km2 of wetlands being transformed to urban. In addition, the geologically risky areas under threat of urbanization will increase by 60% between 2018 and 2040.