A nonlinear forecast system for the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the whole tropical Pacific has been developed using a multi-layer perceptron neural network approach, where sea level pressure and SST anomalies were used as predictors to predict the five leading SST principal components at lead times from 3 to 15 months. Relative to the linear regression (LR) models, the nonlinear (NL) models showed higher correlation skills and lower root mean square errors over most areas of the domain, especially over the far western Pacific (west of 155 degrees E) and the eastern equatorial Pacific off Peru at lead times longer than 3 months, with correlation skills enhanced by 0.10-0.14. Seasonal and decadal changes in the prediction skills in the NL and LR models were also studied.

Nonlinear projections of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) onto North American winter (November–March) surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation anomalies have been performed using neural networks. During El Niño, the linear SAT response has positive anomalies centered over Alaska and western Canada opposing weaker negative anomalies centered over the southeastern United States. In contrast, the nonlinear SAT response, which is excited during both strong El Niño and strong La Niña, has negative anomalies centered over Alaska and northwestern Canada and positive anomalies over much of the United States and southern Canada. For precipitation, the linear response during El Niño has a positive anomaly area stretching from the east coast to the southwest coast of the United States and another positive area in northern Canada, in opposition to the negative anomaly area over much of southern Canada and northern United States, and another negative area over Alaska. In contrast, the nonlinear precipitation response, which is excited during both strong El Niño and strong La Niña, displays positive anomalies over much of the United States and southern Canada, with the main center on the west coast at around 45°N and a weak center along the southeast coast, and negative anomalies over northwestern Canada and Alaska. The nonlinear response accounts for about one-fourth and one-third as much variance as the linear response of the SAT and precipitation, respectively. A polynomial fit further verifies the nonlinear response of both the SAT and precipitation to be mainly a quadratic response to ENSO. Both the linear and nonlinear response patterns of the SAT and precipitation are basically consistent with the circulation anomalies (the 500-mb geopotential height anomalies), detected separately by nonlinear projection. A cross-validation test shows that including the nonlinear (quadratic) response can potentially contribute to additional forecast skill over North America.

Chlorogenic acid (CGA) is the primary constituent of Caulis , a Chinese herb used for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The present study aimed to investigate whether CGA was able to inhibit the proliferation of the fibroblast-like synoviocyte cell line (RSC-364), stimulated by interleukin (IL)-6, through inducing apoptosis. Following incubation with IL-6 or IL-6 and CGA, the cellular proliferation of RSC-364 cells was detected by MTT assay. The ratio of apoptosed cells were detected by flow cytometry. Western blot analysis was performed to observe protein expression levels of key molecules involved in the Janus-activated kinase/signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (JAK/STAT) signaling pathway [phosphorylated (p)-STAT3, JAK1 and gp130] and the nuclear factor κB (NF-κB) signaling pathway [phosphorylated (p)-inhibitor of κB kinase subunit α/β and NF-κB p50). It was revealed that CGA was able to inhibit the inflammatory proliferation of RSC-364 cells mediated by IL-6 through inducing apoptosis. CGA was also able to suppress the expression levels of key molecules in the JAK/STAT and NF-κB signaling pathways, and inhibit the activation of these signaling pathways in the inflammatory response through IL-6-mediated signaling, thereby resulting in the inhibition of the inflammatory proliferation of synoviocytes. The present results indicated that CGA may have potential as a novel therapeutic agent for inhibiting inflammatory hyperplasia of the synovium through inducing synoviocyte apoptosis in patients with RA.

[1] Neural network models are used to reveal the nonlinear winter atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) over the N. Hemisphere. The nonlinear teleconnections (for surface air temperature, precipitation, sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height) are found to relate quadratically to the ENSO and AO indices. Relative to linear teleconnections, nonlinear teleconections appear to propagate perturbations farther, into regions where classical linear teleconnections are insignificant.

These findings suggest that both Sal B and Tan IIA have cardioprotective function in certain levels through multiple targets related with NO production, such as eNOS phosphorylation, L-arginine uptake and CAT expression, which may have major clinical implications.